← Risk register SOC 29-1224 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Radiologists

26,770 US workers · median $420,860/yr · Healthcare

EXPOSED

Image interpretation is the single most attacked task in medicine by AI, and detection models already match or beat human sensitivity on narrow tasks like lung nodules, fractures, and mammographic screening — but the modal radiologist also compares priors across years, resolves ambiguous findings against clinical history, dictates actionable reports, fields curbside consults from surgeons and oncologists, and performs image-guided procedures. What holds is the signature: a licensed, board-certified human owns the report and the malpractice exposure, and no vendor currently accepts autonomous diagnostic liability. Expect volume per radiologist to rise sharply while the interpretive commodity tier compresses.

10-year outlook: By 2035 radiologists read far more studies each with AI pre-reads doing first pass, and hiring growth slows while procedural and subspecialty consultative work becomes the durable core of the job.

US employment, 2021–2025-9.3%
29,53026,770 workers

Most of this decline happened after 2021 — it is not the pandemic dip.

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+2.7% 28,200 → 29,000 on the projections basis

Growing, and only partly exposed

The BLS expects +2.7% more of these jobs by 2034, and at 56/100 the work is only partly exposed — some tasks are automatable, the core of the job is not. Nothing here is in tension.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~800 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

PhysicianRadiologistMammographerTeleradiologistNeuroradiologistNuclear PhysicianAttending PhysicianGeneral RadiologistNuclear RadiologistRadiology PhysicianVascular RadiologistAttending RadiologistPediatric RadiologistRadiologist PhysicianDiagnostic RadiologistVeterinary RadiologistTherapeutic RadiologistNuclear Medicine OfficerBreast Imaging RadiologistInterventional RadiologistNuclear Medicine PhysicianNuclear Medicine SpecialistInterventional NeuroradiologistInterventional Radiology Physician

Score — 56/100 resistance

Holding it up: liability shield (18/20). Weakest point: trust premium (7/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 8 + 8 + 18 + 7 + 15 = 56. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 8/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier An 8 reflects that the highest-volume portion of the workday — screening mammography reads, chest CT nodule detection, plain-film fracture triage, bone-age and cardiothoracic ratio measurement — is exactly where FDA-cleared CAD and triage algorithms already operate at scale, but it stays above the 6 line because worklists still contain multi-phase abdominal CTs where the finding only makes sense against three years of priors and a surgical note, plus fluoroscopy, biopsies, drain placements and tumour boards that no model touches.

Embodiment 8/20

Some physical or field component Most of the day is a dark reading room and a PACS workstation, which anchors this low, but the 8 accounts for the interventional and procedural share of a general radiologist's practice — CT- and ultrasound-guided core biopsies, thoracentesis, paracentesis, lumbar punctures, fluoroscopic barium studies, arthrograms — performed on a live patient in a controlled suite rather than the field.

Liability shield 18/20

Licensed human required and personally liable An 18 is earned by state medical licensure plus ABR board certification, hospital credentialing and privileging per procedure, and the fact that the dictated report carries the radiologist's electronic signature and is the discoverable document in missed-cancer litigation — the discount from 20 is that most reads are one node in a care chain where the ordering clinician and referring physician also carry duty, so radiology malpractice exposure is real but rarely sole.

Trust premium 7/20

Some relationship component Patients typically never learn the radiologist's name and reads are routinely batched, load-balanced overnight, or sent to teleradiology, which caps this well under 13; the 7 comes from the referrer relationship rather than the patient one — orthopaedists and oncologists develop preferences for specific readers and phone them directly, and that repeat curbside traffic is not interchangeable.

Judgment & accountability 15/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls A 15 fits calls where the imaging is genuinely equivocal and the recommendation has consequences: BI-RADS 3 versus 4 on an indeterminate mass, whether a subtle hyperdensity on a stroke code is haemorrhage or artefact within the thrombolysis window, calling an unexpected pulmonary embolism at 3am and escalating it, or recommending against biopsy on a lesion the surgeon wants sampled — ACR appropriateness criteria and structured reporting templates constrain the wording but not the decision.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: licensure, liability, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: MIT OpenCourseWare — operations management free · MIT OpenCourseWare — finance and accounting free · edX — operations management and process monitoring courses free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Anesthesiologists SAFE · 89/100 · you already have ~84% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operations Analysis, Management of Financial Resources, Operations Monitoring

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 69/100 — SAFE.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +4

    Genuine two-tier structure: plain-film and screening-mammography volume is the commodity tier; the judgment tier is multiphase CT/MR, oncologic staging with prior comparison across years, and interventional/image-guided procedures (biopsies, drains, ablations, IR). If fellowship-trained IR and body/neuro subspecialty work becomes the dominant share of the job as commodity reads compress, measured task resistance rises without any new law. Watch subspecialty fellowship match data and the IR/DR residency split.

  • already happening liability shield +2

    FDA continuing to clear all diagnostic imaging AI only as CADe/CADx adjuncts requiring a licensed interpreting physician's signature, plus CMS conditions of participation and state medical practice acts keeping the final report attributable to a board-certified radiologist. A concrete watchpoint: whether any AI vendor's product labeling ever permits autonomous reporting without physician review (as happened with IDx-DR in ophthalmology), and whether malpractice carriers (e.g. The Doctors Company, MedPro) write policies that price autonomous AI reads at all.

  • plausible judgment accountability +4

    If the routine screening tier is largely pre-read by AI, the residual role concentrates in discrepancy resolution, indeterminate findings, tumor board participation, and signing off on AI outputs the radiologist did not generate — i.e. owning calls where the model and the clinical picture disagree. ACR's Assess-AI registry and 'AI QA' program formalizing radiologist responsibility for model drift and error adjudication would make this an explicit accountable duty rather than an informal one.

  • plausible embodiment +3

    Same shift toward image-guided intervention — fluoroscopy, CT-guided biopsy, vascular access, ablation — is unpredictable-environment physical work. Only applies to the IR-heavy portion of the SOC code, not to teleradiology.

The limit. Trust premium has no realistic route: patients almost never choose their radiologist, rarely learn the name on the report, and the buyer is the hospital or payer optimizing cost per read — the same economics that made teleradiology outsourcing viable. The liability shield is already near ceiling and is the load-bearing dimension; if autonomous-read labeling and carrier coverage ever arrive, the whole 56 falls fast rather than degrading gradually.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 42 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 1,950 $465,780 +11%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 1,210 $239,200 -43%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 770 $156,800 -63%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 550 $452,940 +8%
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX 500 $131,470 -69%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN 400 $239,200 -43%
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO 340 $344,270 -18%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 310 $488,670 +16%

Best paid

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 30 $745,230 +77%
Sioux Falls, SD-MN 50 $669,020 +59%
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH 60 $592,050 +41%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $420,860. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

NYC Health + Hospitals

1 of 1 reported case, with sources

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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