← Risk register SOC 47-2044 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Tile and Stone Setters

35,850 US workers · median $55,690/yr · Construction

SAFE

Nearly all of the work is kneeling on a substrate cutting, buttering, and setting individual pieces to a flat plane in rooms that are never square, level, or the same twice — waterproofing a shower pan, planning layout so cuts land where they won't be seen, and matching veining across slabs. AI can already produce the estimate, the material takeoff, the layout diagram, and the customer quote, which is where the office side of a tile business gets squeezed. Robotic tile placement exists only in large flat commercial fields; residential remodels, curbless showers, stair nosings, and stone countertops remain hand skill, and homeowners hire the installer whose past bathrooms they can walk through.

10-year outlook: Demand holds through the 2030s on remodels and aging housing stock; the paperwork and estimating side of the trade thins out, while certified wet-install and stone specialists see rates rise as fewer young workers enter.

Score — 67/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 18 + 19 + 6 + 12 + 12 = 67.

Task resistance 18/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Setting a mud bed to slope on a curbless shower, back-buttering a 24x48 porcelain panel so it doesn't lippage out, dry-fitting a diagonal on a room that's 3/8" out of square over 12 feet, and mitering a stone edge on a wet saw are sequential judgment-plus-hand tasks with no digital substitute — the only pieces machines have taken are estimating and layout drawings, which is why it sits at 18 and not 20.

Embodiment 19/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are on your knees on a hard substrate for six hours, hauling 50-lb boxes and mortar bags up stairs, running a wet saw in a room with no fixed dimensions, working around plumbing rough-ins, occupied houses, and half-finished framing — the only thing keeping it off 20 is that the site is at least indoors and enclosed most days.

Liability shield 6/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. No national tile licence exists; most states pull you in under a general contractor or specialty-trade licence above a dollar threshold, and ANSI A108/TCNA methods and Schluter or Laticrete waterproofing certifications are what customers and warranty claims actually reference — real credentials, but voluntary ones, which is a 6 rather than a plumber's 15.

Trust premium 12/20

Some relationship component. Homeowners pick the setter whose finished bathroom they physically stood in and who the tile shop or GC recommends by name, and repeat remodel work follows the individual — but bid price still wins plenty of jobs and commercial fields are awarded on square-foot rate, holding this at 12.

Judgment & accountability 12/20

Meaningful discretion. You decide where the layout line starts so the cut tile lands behind the toilet rather than at the door, whether the slab deflection needs an uncoupling membrane or a full mud bed, and whether the substrate is dry enough to set on — calls that cause a failed shower pan and a gut-out two years later, but they are made against published TCNA details rather than in a vacuum.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 68/100 — SAFE, agreeing with the verdict above.

This score sits on a verdict boundary. At 67/100 it is one point from EXPOSED. Re-scoring moves results by a point or two, so here the score is more informative than the label.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, trust, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.