← Risk register SOC 27-2011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Actors

55,000 US workers · Media

EXPOSED

Acting is embodied performance, which generative text models can't do — but generative video and voice cloning attack exactly the commercial base that pays most working actors: background and stand-in work, corporate and industrial narration, ADR and dubbing, animated and game voice roles, and low-budget spot commercials. What survives is presence audiences knowingly pay for: live theater, stage and improv, on-camera roles where a recognizable human face carries the project, and motion-capture/performance-capture work that still needs a body. There is no license, so the only structural protection is SAG-AFTRA consent-and-compensation language on digital replicas, which is contractual rather than regulatory.

10-year outlook: By the mid-2030s synthetic video and voice will have absorbed most background, dubbing, and generic commercial work, leaving a smaller field concentrated in live performance, capture work, and named on-camera talent.

US employment, 2019–2025+4.5%
52,62055,000 workers

Roughly flat across the period, with year-to-year wobble.

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+0.3% 57,000 → 57,100 on the projections basis

Growing, and only partly exposed

The BLS expects +0.3% more of these jobs by 2034, and at 48/100 the work is only partly exposed — some tasks are automatable, the core of the job is not. Nothing here is in tension.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~6,300 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

MimeActorComicExtraDoubleActressComedianMinstrelNarratorStand-InPerformerPuppeteerShow GirlSoubretteMonologistMovie StarTour ActorEntertainerIllusionistMovie ActorMovie ExtraRole PlayerScare ActorStunt Woman

Score — 48/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (14/20). Weakest point: liability shield (2/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 12 + 14 + 2 + 13 + 7 = 48. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 12/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier A 12 reflects the split inside the actual job: cold reads, on-set adjustments to a director's note, eight-shows-a-week stage runs and mocap suit work still require a live performer, while the voiceover booth session, the dub pass, the background crowd tile and the industrial explainer read are already being generated or synthesized — so roughly half the paid task volume is under direct attack, not the craft ceiling.

Embodiment 14/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments At 14 the work happens on soundstages, location shoots in weather, fight and dance choreography, wire and harness work, and repertory stage floors where blocking, sightlines and a physical audience are the medium — it stops short of 18-20 only because a large share of credited work is captured in controlled studio or booth conditions rather than genuinely unpredictable field environments.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement A 2 is the floor plus nothing: there is no state license, no board exam, no continuing education, and no legal barrier to a producer casting an untrained person or a synthetic performer — SAG-AFTRA membership and the 2023 digital-replica consent terms are bargained contract language enforceable only where the production is signatory, which non-union and AI-native shops simply avoid.

Trust premium 13/20

The human relationship is the product 13 is earned by the named-face economy — audiences buy tickets for a specific performer, casting directors rehire from personal relationships with agents and repeat-collaborator directors, and a star's likeness is the asset the marketing sells — but the median working actor is cast off a self-tape by strangers and is functionally interchangeable in the role, which keeps this below the 17+ of professions where the client will not accept a substitute.

Judgment & accountability 7/20

Meaningful discretion 7 sits at the bottom of real discretion: the actor owns interpretive choices — objective, tempo, where the emotional turn lands — but works inside a script, a director's final call, and a producer's approval, so no one else bears financial or safety consequences for the performer's judgment the way they would for a surgeon's or an engineer's.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 48/100 — EXPOSED, agreeing with the verdict above.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, trust, unionization

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Coursera — customer service and client-facing skill courses free to audit · Coursera — teaching and instructional design, audit free free to audit · Learning How to Learn — the most-taken course on Coursera, and free free to audit · edX — supply chain and inventory management free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education SAFE · 73/100 · you already have ~56% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Service Orientation, Instructing, Learning Strategies, Management of Material Resources

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 66/100, still EXPOSED.

5 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening liability shield +5

    Right-of-publicity statutes with statutory damages and a consent-verification step — Tennessee ELVIS Act (2024), California AB 1836 (deceased personalities), and the federal NO FAKES Act as drafted — combined with E&O insurers requiring documented signed consent from an identified human performer for any digital replica. That makes a real, named human's executed release a condition of distribution, functionally a signature requirement even without a license.

  • already happening task resistance +4

    Task-mix shift: acting genuinely has two tiers. If background, ADR, dubbing, and industrial narration are absorbed by synthesis, the residual occupation is on-camera lead work, live stage, and performance-capture where directorial collaboration and physical improvisation happen in the room. The measured resistance of the remaining job rises even as headcount falls — this is a composition effect, not protection for the same number of workers.

  • plausible trust premium +4

    Mandatory synthetic-performer disclosure at point of sale — e.g. an FTC rule or state analogue requiring on-screen/AV labeling of AI-generated performers, plus platform-level 'human-performed' tagging (already partially in motion via the EU AI Act Art. 50 transparency duties and California AB 2602/1836). If audiences and brand advertisers can see which credits are human, the willingness to pay specifically for human casting becomes visible and priceable rather than invisible.

  • plausible judgment accountability +3

    Contractual consolidation of the actor as a named creative principal — SAG-AFTRA successor agreements extending approval rights over replica use, dubbing likeness, and game performance to the individual performer, making the actor the party who authorizes or refuses specific downstream uses. If the performer holds a per-use veto rather than a blanket buyout, the role owns a consequential call.

  • plausible embodiment +2

    Growth in live and location-bound formats that cannot be synthesized for a co-present audience — immersive theater, themed-entertainment live shows, arena and touring productions — plus continued studio reliance on physical performance capture for volumetric work. No policy lever; this rises only if consumer spend shifts toward co-presence.

The limit. Absent licensure, the ceiling is low: right-of-publicity law protects the likeness of people who already have a marketable name, not the median working actor whose income came from background, dubbing, and industrial narration. Disclosure and consent regimes govern replicas of specific performers; they do nothing about wholly synthetic performers with no underlying human, which is where the displacement of the commercial base actually happens. Realistic ceiling around 60-65, concentrated on recognizable and stage performers.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 46 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 24,800 —
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 5,430 —
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 4,240 —
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV 680 —
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 680 —
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 610 —
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 570 —
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 510 —

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of —. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

Embark Studios

6 of 15 reported cases, with sources

9 more in the dispatch

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

Rather than check back: get the digest and we'll tell you what changed — or watch a single occupation from its own page.