← Risk register SOC 33-3011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Bailiffs

17,310 US workers · median $56,600/yr · Protective Service

SAFE

A bailiff's day is physical courtroom presence: screening entrants, escorting in-custody defendants, restraining outbursts, guarding juries, and serving papers — none of which a language model can do. The automatable slice is thin and administrative: logging case activity, preparing docket paperwork, drafting incident reports, and scheduling. Sworn peace-officer status and statutory arrest/custody authority mean a human must physically be the one holding the courtroom.

10-year outlook: Headcount stays roughly flat and tied to court dockets; expect clerical reporting duties to shrink into automated systems while the sworn, physical security role remains fully human.

US employment, 2019–2025-11.9%
19,65017,310 workers

Nearly all of this fall was the 2020 shock. It has been climbing back since.

Median pay $47,830 → $56,600 -5.3% in real terms (nominal +18.3%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

-2.2% 19,000 → 18,600 on the projections basis

Hard to automate, but shrinking anyway

The work resists current AI, yet the BLS projects -2.2% by 2034. Whatever is shrinking this occupation, the evidence does not point to automation — demand, demographics, offshoring and industry decline all shrink jobs that no machine could do.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~1,800 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 18 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

BailiffCity BailiffCourt DeputyArmed BailiffCourt BailiffCourt OfficerBailiff DeputyCounty BailiffDeputy BailiffCourt ConstableCourtroom DeputyJudicial MarshalSecurity OfficerSergeant at ArmsCourt Security OfficerDistrict Court BailiffGrand Jury Deputy SheriffDeputy Court Services Sheriff

Score — 67/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (18/20). Weakest point: trust premium (10/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 16 + 18 + 12 + 10 + 11 = 67. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 16/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation Moving a shackled defendant from holding to the well, clearing a gallery when a family member starts shouting, and physically sequestering a jury during deliberations are irreducibly manual; only the docket logs, incident write-ups, and calendar coordination compress, which is why this sits at 16 rather than 19 — a real slice of the shift is paperwork.

Embodiment 18/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments The work happens in an unpredictable public room — hostile litigants, contraband at the magnetometer, prisoner transport hallways, and process service at private residences where the bailiff does not control who opens the door — leaving essentially no portion of the job performable from a screen.

Liability shield 12/20

Licensed human required and personally liable Most bailiffs are sworn deputies or court officers with POST/state peace-officer certification and statutory arrest authority, so use-of-force decisions attach to them personally under §1983, but the sheriff or presiding judge holds the ultimate command responsibility for courtroom security, which caps this below the 16+ range of independently licensed practitioners.

Trust premium 10/20

Some relationship component Judges, clerks, and prosecutors come to rely on a specific bailiff who knows which defendants are volatile and how a given judge wants the room run, but the public never chooses their bailiff and the badge is interchangeable to them — the relationship is an efficiency, not the service being purchased.

Judgment & accountability 11/20

Meaningful discretion Deciding when a raised voice becomes contempt-worthy, when to interpose between parties, and how much force a fleeing defendant justifies are split-second calls the bailiff owns, though standing orders, court security manuals, and the judge's direct instruction from the bench structure most of the day.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 68/100 — SAFE, agreeing with the verdict above.

This score sits on a verdict boundary. At 67/100 it is one point from EXPOSED. Re-scoring moves results by a point or two, so here the score is more informative than the label.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, licensure, physical-presence

How to future-proof this job

Where to go deeper on what this job runs on: Coursera — communication and interpersonal skills free to audit · Toastmasters — public speaking practice at local clubs worldwide low · edX — performance measurement and evaluation free to audit · Coursera — active listening and communication skills free to audit · Coursera — decision making under uncertainty free to audit · Coursera — critical thinking and logic, audit free free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 77/100, still SAFE.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +2

    Task-mix shift: if e-filing, automated docket logging, and AI-drafted incident reports remove the administrative tier, the residual role is almost entirely unscripted physical judgment — restraint decisions, de-escalation of family-court outbursts, prisoner-defendant separation — which raises the share of the day that is non-automatable

  • plausible liability shield +4

    State POST (Peace Officer Standards and Training) certification being made a hard statutory prerequisite for anyone performing in-custody transport or courtroom custody — several states (e.g. California's Trial Court Security Act allocations, Texas Occupations Code Ch.1701) already tie court security funding to sworn, certified deputies; extending that to bar contract/unsworn security from custody duties, with personal liability under Section 1983 for custody decisions, would deepen the shield

  • plausible judgment accountability +3

    Written court-security standards (NCSC/state judicial council rules) that assign a named bailiff personal responsibility for threat-assessment calls on courtroom entrants and for jury sequestration integrity — post-incident reviews after courthouse attacks have pushed some judicial councils toward naming an accountable officer per courtroom rather than a shift roster

  • plausible embodiment +1

    Expansion of duty scope into hybrid/remote-hearing escort and off-site custody transport as courts decentralize, plus service of process on evasive respondents, adds more unpredictable-environment work per FTE

The limit. Trust premium has no realistic route: the buyer is a county government purchasing statutory coverage at a set wage, not a client choosing a human. The real risk to this occupation is headcount consolidation — courtroom-consolidation, remote arraignment, and centralized camera-based screening reduce the number of posts needed — not task automation. Score stability does not imply job-count stability.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 73 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 2,730 $83,360 +47%
San Juan-Bayamon-Caguas, PR 800 $37,770 -33%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 550 $79,570 +41%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 500 $50,660 -10%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 460 $47,600 -16%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 390 $59,450 +5%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 360 $55,750 -2%
Cleveland, OH 350 $53,540 -5%

Best paid

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 220 $164,040 +190%
Warner Robins, GA 40 $164,040 +190%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 110 $100,570 +78%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $56,600. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 67. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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