← Risk register SOC 47-2011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Boilermakers

10,190 US workers · median $76,410/yr · Construction

SAFE

Boilermakers assemble, weld, and repair pressure vessels, boilers, and tanks inside confined, hot, awkward spaces at refineries, power plants, and shipyards — work no current robot can do at cost. AI touches only the thin paper layer: reading blueprints, weld procedure documentation, and inspection reports. The real constraints are ASME code welding qualifications, rigging skill, and diagnosing corrosion and leaks by hand and eye during tight turnaround windows.

10-year outlook: Employment stays small and cyclical with power-plant and refinery outage cycles, but the hands-on pressure-vessel work is essentially untouched by AI through 2035, and retirements keep qualified welders scarce.

Score — 67/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 18 + 20 + 10 + 7 + 12 = 67.

Task resistance 18/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Rolling and bending shell plate, aligning drums with jacks and wedges, back-gouging a root pass overhead inside a mud drum, and replacing tubes through a 16-inch manhole are tasks that require a body in the vessel rather than a shop-floor gantry, so only the takeoff, weld-map, and NDE paperwork sit within reach of software — that's why this is 18 and not a mixed 12.

Embodiment 20/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You work inside the vessel: confined-space entry permits, 120°F stack temperatures during a boiler outage, scaffolds and stagings you build yourself, torch and stinger in hand, in geometry that changes at every plant — this is the ceiling case for uncontrolled physical environments, not merely a field job.

Liability shield 10/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. You hold real credentials — ASME Section IX procedure qualifications, an R-stamp or NB shop's welder continuity records, sometimes state boiler-repair endorsements — and a failed radiograph is traced to your stencil, but the Authorized Inspector signs the R-1 form and the certificate holder carries the code liability, which puts this at 10 rather than up with a PE or licensed operating engineer.

Trust premium 7/20

Some relationship component. Contractors and plant maintenance managers request specific hands by name for turnaround crews and boilermakers get called back to the same units year after year, but you're dispatched out of a Local hall on manpower calls and the client is buying qualified stencils and headcount, not you personally — hence 7.

Judgment & accountability 12/20

Meaningful discretion. Deciding whether wall thinning warrants a pad weld or a full tube section, calling a rigging plan for a 40-ton drum through a boiler house door, and judging fit-up and preheat when the drawing doesn't match the as-built vessel are all discretionary calls — but WPSs, lift plans, and the Authorized Inspector's hold points bound them, so 12 rather than a 16 where you'd own the ambiguity alone.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 69/100 — SAFE, agreeing with the verdict above.

This score sits on a verdict boundary. At 67/100 it is one point from EXPOSED. Re-scoring moves results by a point or two, so here the score is more informative than the label.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, licensure, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.