← Risk register SOC 53-5021 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels

36,850 US workers · median $92,460/yr · Transportation

SAFE

The core of this job is conning a vessel through traffic, weather, currents, and narrow channels while commanding a crew — physical, situational work that autonomous shipping trials have not come close to replacing at scale. A USCG license (master, mate, or pilot endorsement) is legally required and the master carries personal liability for the vessel, cargo, and lives aboard. Log-keeping, voyage planning, cargo paperwork, and route optimization are already being automated, which trims the desk half of the job but not the bridge half.

10-year outlook: Autonomous and remotely supervised vessels will absorb open-water transit legs and paperwork over the next decade, but licensed humans will still hold the con for docking, pilotage, and emergencies — expect fewer crew per hull and more value concentrated in the master and pilot tiers.

Score — 74/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 15 + 17 + 17 + 8 + 17 = 74.

Task resistance 15/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Docking a loaded tug-and-barge unit in a 3-knot cross-current, judging a crossing situation under COLREGS Rule 15 against a fishing fleet that isn't broadcasting AIS, and ordering a crew to secure lines in a swell are not scripted procedures — the 15 rather than 18 reflects that ECDIS voyage planning, ballast calculations, and noon reports have already left your hands.

Embodiment 17/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You work on a moving platform in weather you don't control — climbing to the bridge wing to eyeball clearance, boarding a moving ship off a pilot ladder in a swell, walking the deck in ice — and the 17 rather than 20 only accounts for the hours you spend seated at a chart table or console.

Liability shield 17/20

Licensed human required and personally liable. A USCG Master, Mate, or Pilot endorsement under 46 CFR Part 11 is a personal credential: after a grounding or allision it's your license at the suspension-and-revocation hearing, your name on the 2692, and potential criminal exposure under the Refuse Act or Seaman's Manslaughter statute — held below 20 only because pilotage associations and vessel owners absorb much of the civil damage claim.

Trust premium 8/20

Some relationship component. Charterers and shippers book tonnage and schedules, not you by name; the 8 comes from the repeat relationships that do matter — a state pilot known to local port captains, a harbor tug master a docking pilot asks for, a crew that will sail with you again.

Judgment & accountability 17/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. When the fog closes in, you decide alone whether to anchor or proceed, whether to accept the tow, whether the cargo is safely stowed for the forecast sea state — Master's Overriding Authority under the ISM Code exists precisely because no shore office can be given that call, and the 17 rather than 20 reflects standing orders, company SMS procedures, and compulsory pilotage that narrow the field.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, licensure, liability, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.