← Risk register SOC 47-2031 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Carpenters

670,090 US workers · median $60,580/yr · Construction

SAFE

Framing walls, hanging doors, setting stairs, and scribing trim to out-of-plumb existing structures happen in mud, weather, and tight crawlspaces where no current robot competes; the automatable slice is estimating, cut lists, takeoffs, and shop drawings. Carpentry generally requires no personal license (contractor licensing is a business-level requirement in most states), so the regulatory moat is thin — the moat is physical. Remodel and finish carpenters carry a real trust premium with homeowners; production framers on tract sites carry less and face more pressure from panelized and prefab components built off-site.

10-year outlook: Employment holds roughly steady over ten years, but the work shifts: fewer hours cutting sticks on site as panelization spreads, more hours on remodel, finish, and integrating factory-built assemblies.

Score — 68/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 18 + 20 + 5 + 12 + 13 = 68.

Task resistance 18/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Cutting a bird's-mouth on a rafter to a ridge that's 3/8" out of level, shimming a jamb until a door swings shut against a racked 1920s opening, and toe-nailing blocking overhead in a joist bay are sequences no digital tool executes; only the pre-cut side — panel layouts, cut lists, and material takeoffs — has already moved to software, which is why this sits at 18 rather than the low teens.

Embodiment 20/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You work off a ladder in the rain, kneel on a subfloor to nail base, crawl under a house to sister a joist, and carry sheet goods up stairs — every duty happens at an unfixtured, changing location with no controlled workcell, so there is no fraction of the day that maps to a screen.

Liability shield 5/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. There is no journeyman carpenter license in most states — a general contractor's license or a jobsite competent-person OSHA card sits with the company, not with you personally, so a 5 reflects apprenticeship credentials and fall-protection/scaffold certifications being expected rather than any statute making you the signing party on the work.

Trust premium 12/20

Some relationship component. A finish or remodel carpenter who gets repeat kitchen and built-in work through homeowner referrals owns the relationship, but the same job is routinely won on bid by a crew the client never meets, and a production framer on a tract subdivision is interchangeable to the builder — 12 is the average of those two realities, not a claim that clients ask for you by name.

Judgment & accountability 13/20

Meaningful discretion. You decide whether an existing header carries the new opening, where to relieve a crown that won't scribe, and when a wall is far enough out to shim versus rip out — real calls made without waiting for the engineer, but a stamped plan, inspector, and code table bound most of them, which keeps this at 13 instead of the high-stakes band.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, physical-presence, trust

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.