← Risk register SOC 15-1251 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Computer Programmers

92,230 US workers · median $100,390/yr · Tech

COOKED

This BLS title is the implementation tier: writing code from specifications someone else wrote, debugging, updating and maintaining existing programs, and converting designs into working logic — the exact work LLMs now do at usable quality and speed. Unlike software developers (15-1252), programmers are defined by translating requirements rather than owning architecture, requirements negotiation, or production accountability, so the surviving judgment tier is thin and mostly sits in the next job title up. BLS already projects this occupation shrinking, and employment has been sliding for a decade before AI arrived.

10-year outlook: Headcount under this title keeps falling through the 2030s; the work doesn't vanish but gets absorbed into fewer, more senior software developer and platform roles that supervise AI output.

Score — 24/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 6 + 2 + 1 + 6 + 9 = 24.

Task resistance 6/20

Core tasks are already automatable. Writing code to a spec, tracing a null-pointer exception through a stack trace, porting a COBOL batch job or updating a maintenance ticket are precisely the tasks a model completes in one prompt cycle, which is why this sits at 6 rather than mid-band — the residual 6 points cover legacy systems with no documentation and undocumented in-house build chains a model cannot see.

Embodiment 2/20

Fully desk- and screen-based. The job is a keyboard, a monitor and a repo; the 2 points reflect occasional deployment to on-prem hardware or hooking a debugger to physical test equipment in embedded work, not any routine requirement to leave the desk.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement. There is no state licence, no PE stamp, no bar admission and no statutory sign-off for shipping code; when a defect causes loss it lands on the employer's contract and E&O policy, and 1 point is only for the narrow safety-critical niches where DO-178C or IEC 62304 name a qualified person.

Trust premium 6/20

Some relationship component. Clients and product owners route work through a ticket queue or a team lead rather than asking for you by name; the 6 reflects genuine value in knowing which module breaks when you touch the billing table, but that is institutional memory, not a relationship a buyer would follow to another firm.

Judgment & accountability 9/20

Meaningful discretion. Choosing a data structure, deciding whether a bug is a real defect or an unclear requirement, and judging a fix's blast radius are real calls, but they are made inside boundaries someone else drew — architecture, schema and release approval sit with developers, architects and change boards, which is what keeps this at 9 instead of the mid-teens.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: judgment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Software Developers EXPOSED · 41/100 · you already have ~75% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Selection, Operation and Control, Installation, Service Orientation

Computer and Information Research Scientists EXPOSED · 40/100 · you already have ~75% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Selection, Operation and Control, Judgment and Decision Making, Learning Strategies

Computer and Information Systems Managers EXPOSED · 44/100 · you already have ~65% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Management of Financial Resources, Management of Personnel Resources, Equipment Selection, Monitoring

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.