← Risk register SOC 35-2011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Cooks, Fast Food

641,070 US workers · median $30,890/yr · Food

EXPOSED

Nothing a fast food cook does is text or screen work, so language models are irrelevant here — the threat is purpose-built kitchen robotics and equipment automation aimed at exactly these tasks: fry baskets, griddle patties, drink and shake dispensing, assembly lines. The work is embodied but deliberately deskilled and standardized, which is the easiest kind of physical work to mechanize, and there's no license, no signature, and no customer paying for a relationship with the person at the fryer. What survives is the messy human middle: reading a rush, fixing a jammed line, prepping unpredictable produce, keeping a station clean and safe when equipment misbehaves.

10-year outlook: Headcount per store keeps shrinking as fry, grill, and beverage automation spreads through large chains, while the remaining roles consolidate into fewer equipment-savvy shift leads and prep cooks.

US employment, 2019–2025+21.6%
527,220641,070 workers

Headcount grew steadily across the period.

Median pay $23,510 → $30,890 +5.1% in real terms (nominal +31.4%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

-13.5% 669,500 → 579,200 on the projections basis

Exposed, and shrinking

Both signals point the same way: the tasks are largely automatable and the BLS projects -13.5% by 2034. This is the case where the score and the forecast agree, and it is the one worth taking seriously.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~82,100 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

CookFryerFry CookLine CookGrill CookPizza ChefPizza CookPizza BakerPizza MakerFast Food CookSnack Bar CookSpecialty CookGrill Line CookFast Food WorkerFood Service CookFryline AttendantRestaurant WorkerTruck Team MemberFast Food Fry CookKitchen Team MemberPancake ProfessionalRestaurant Line CookDeep Fat Fryer OperatorHotel and Restaurant Baker

Score — 35/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (14/20). Weakest point: liability shield (2/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 11 + 14 + 2 + 3 + 5 = 35. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 11/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier Timed fry drops, griddle patty flips, and shake dispensing are already commercially automated (Flippy, autonomous fry stations), but the same shift also means breaking down a jammed lettuce shredder, working a lunch rush where orders arrive out of sequence, restocking a walk-in, and hand-wrapping items whose sizes and fillings change with every LTO promo — enough non-scripted physical work to sit at 11 rather than in the single digits.

Embodiment 14/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments A 14 reflects a fixed kitchen footprint — same fryers, same line, same layout — but an environment nobody would call controlled: 350°F oil, wet tile, steam, someone's elbow in your path, and equipment that fails mid-rush; robots handle the fryer well and handle spills and crowding badly.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement A ServSafe food handler card is a few hours and a multiple-choice test in most states, and when a health inspector writes up a temperature violation the citation lands on the store's permit and the operator, not on the cook who pulled the tray — no personal license is at risk, hence 2.

Trust premium 3/20

Anonymous artifact production Customers order from a menu board or an app and never see the person cooking; the brand and the speed of the drive-thru timer are the product, which is why this sits at 3 and not zero — regulars in a small-town store do recognize the crew.

Judgment & accountability 5/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs Cook times, hold times, portion charts, and holding-cabinet timers dictate nearly every decision, and the real calls you make — whether the oil needs changing, whether that batch of nuggets sat too long, when to pre-drop before a bus pulls in — are consequential but bounded and reversible, putting this at 5 rather than 12.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, physical-presence

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: OSHA Outreach Training — the 10- and 30-hour cards most employers ask for low · MIT OpenCourseWare — operations management free · MIT OpenCourseWare — circuits, systems and diagnostic method, free and ungated free · Apprenticeship.gov — industrial maintenance and millwright programs paid to train · Coursera — engineering and procurement courses, auditable without paying free to audit · Apprenticeship.gov — paid, employer-sponsored trade apprenticeships, searchable by trade and ZIP paid to train · Coursera — quality control and inspection courses, auditable free free to audit · edX — supply chain and inventory management free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Postal Service Mail Carriers EXPOSED · 49/100 · you already have ~78% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operation and Control, Operations Analysis

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners EXPOSED · 52/100 · you already have ~75% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Troubleshooting, Equipment Maintenance, Equipment Selection, Repairing

Cooks, Restaurant EXPOSED · 57/100 · you already have ~74% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Selection, Quality Control Analysis, Management of Material Resources, Operation and Control

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 46/100, still EXPOSED.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +3

    Task-mix shift as fry/griddle robotics (Miso Robotics Flippy, White Castle/Jack in the Box pilots) take the repeatable stations: the remaining shift becomes exception handling — robot jam clearing, sanitation of automated equipment, non-standard produce prep, allergen-modified and custom orders that break the automated flow. Two genuine tiers exist here, and the residual tier is harder than the average of today's job.

  • plausible liability shield +3

    A state or local food-safety rule requiring a certified food protection manager (ServSafe-style) physically present on every shift and personally named on the HACCP log for automated cooking equipment — extending existing FDA Food Code Person-In-Charge requirements to cover robotic fry/grill temperature verification. Some jurisdictions already require a certified manager on premises; the specific extension is personal signature on automated-equipment cook-temperature records.

  • plausible judgment accountability +3

    If chains formalize the shift lead / 'automation attendant' role — the person who decides to shut down a miscalibrated fryer, void a batch, or switch to manual during a rush — with documented authority and accountability, the call under ambiguity becomes part of the job description rather than informal. Union contracts from the Fight for $15 lineage and California's AB 1228 Fast Food Council are venues where staffing-and-authority terms are actually being written.

  • plausible embodiment +2

    If franchise menu complexity keeps expanding (limited-time offers, regional items, customization via app ordering) faster than robot retooling cycles, the physical work stays in unstructured layouts — cramped legacy kitchens not rebuilt for automation, where equipment placement varies store to store. Embodiment scores rise where the environment resists standardization rather than where the task does.

The limit. Trust premium has no realistic route: fast food's entire value proposition is speed and price uniformity, and no customer segment pays extra to know a human touched the patty. Even with every lever above, this occupation stays in the exposed band — the levers slow attrition of headcount per store and shift who survives, they do not create a protected role.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 297 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 48,440 $38,000 +23%
St. Louis, MO-IL 17,700 $30,860 +0%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 16,910 $42,480 +38%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 15,830 $27,690 -10%
Kansas City, MO-KS 13,850 $30,170 -2%
Raleigh-Cary, NC 11,500 $28,220 -9%
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA 10,630 $42,450 +37%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 10,580 $35,800 +16%

Best paid

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 4,790 $47,220 +53%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 10,160 $46,670 +51%
Napa, CA 370 $45,300 +47%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $30,890. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 35. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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