← Risk register SOC 35-2015 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Cooks, Short Order

138,650 US workers · median $35,880/yr · Food

EXPOSED

Grilling burgers, cracking eggs, dressing sandwiches and plating six tickets at once in a hot, cramped line is physical work that language AI cannot touch — the automation threat here is fryer and grill robotics plus kiosk-driven menu simplification, not chatbots. But the job has almost no licensure beyond a food handler card, customers aren't paying for a relationship with the cook, and the decisions are speed and doneness calls rather than high-stakes judgment. Chains piloting automated fry stations and conveyor grills are the real pressure, and they hit exactly this SOC code first.

10-year outlook: The work itself won't be done by software, but automated fry and grill stations plus kiosk ordering will thin short-order headcount in high-volume chains over the next decade, while independent diners and scratch kitchens keep hiring humans.

US employment, 2019–2025-9.2%
152,670138,650 workers

Nearly all of this fall was the 2020 shock. It has been climbing back since.

Median pay $25,150 → $35,880 +14.1% in real terms (nominal +42.7%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

-5.6% 151,100 → 142,700 on the projections basis

Shrinking, but not obviously because of AI

The BLS projects -5.6% by 2034, but at 47/100 this work is only moderately exposed — not the profile of a job current AI can simply do. Occupations shrink for many reasons, and the score does not point at automation as this one's cause.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~20,600 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

CookHasherLine CookFood ClerkGrill CookPizza CookPizza MakerBroiler CookGriddle CookGrill PersonHash SlingerBarbecue CookBreakfast CookSnack Bar CookGrill AssociateGrill AttendantGrill Line CookSandwich ArtistChuck Wagon CookShort Order CookGriddle AttendantBreakfast Line CookPrepared Foods ClerkShort Order Fry Cook

Score — 47/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (18/20). Weakest point: liability shield (3/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 16 + 18 + 3 + 4 + 6 = 47. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 16/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation Cracking eggs to order, flipping a burger by feel, scraping the flattop between tickets and rebuilding a BLT when the customer says no mayo are manipulation tasks no software executes — 16 rather than 19 because the narrow, repeated menu items (fries, patties, pancakes on a griddle) are exactly what Miso-style fry arms and conveyor broilers already handle in pilot stores.

Embodiment 18/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments Eight hours standing on rubber mats between a 400°F flattop and a fryer, reaching into a low reach-in cooler, working a two-foot-wide aisle during a lunch rush with grease on the floor — an 18 because the space is hot, wet and unpredictable in a way robot cells aren't built for, short of 20 only because the line itself is a fixed, engineered station a manufacturer can design around.

Liability shield 3/20

No licence, no signature requirement A county food handler card is a few hours online and a $15 fee, and no statute makes you personally answerable for a plate that goes out wrong — that's why this sits at 3 and not 0: the card is still a legal precondition to being on the line, and the health inspector's citation names the establishment, not you.

Trust premium 4/20

Anonymous artifact production Diner regulars may know the cook who remembers their over-medium, and at a counter grill you're visible to them, which is the difference between 4 and 0 — but the ticket comes off a POS printer, nobody asks for you by name when ordering, and swapping cooks between shifts changes nothing the customer pays for.

Judgment & accountability 6/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs You decide firing order for six tickets, when a chicken breast is done without a thermometer, and whether to re-cook a returned plate — real calls, but they run against a fixed menu, standardized cook times, portion charts and a manager who handles anything past the pass, which caps this at 6.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, physical-presence

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: MIT OpenCourseWare — systems analysis and engineering free · Coursera — engineering and procurement courses, auditable without paying free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — operations management free · edX — supply chain and inventory management free to audit · Learning How to Learn — the most-taken course on Coursera, and free free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — finance and accounting free

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Cooks, Restaurant EXPOSED · 57/100 · you already have ~88% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Systems Analysis, Equipment Selection, Operations Analysis

Cooks, Private Household SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~63% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operations Analysis, Management of Material Resources, Learning Strategies, Management of Financial Resources

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 57/100, still EXPOSED.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening embodiment +1

    Robotic grill/fry cells (Miso Robotics Flippy, Chipotle's Autocado/Hyphen line) remain confined to high-volume single-item stations; independent diners, food trucks and 24-hour counters with variable menus, cramped non-standard kitchens and no capex keep the full unpredictable-line work human. Embodiment stays near ceiling only if kitchen retrofit cost stays above the labor it replaces — the score is already 18 and cannot rise much.

  • plausible liability shield +4

    State adoption of FDA Food Code provisions requiring a Certified Food Protection Manager physically present during all hours of operation (already law in NJ, IL, and several counties) — if that certification attaches to the person on the line rather than a manager on paper, and if allergen-control rules like Illinois' allergen-trained staff mandate expand, a named certificated human becomes required at the cook station.

  • plausible judgment accountability +3

    HACCP-style logged responsibility for temperature and allergen calls at the station, with the cook named on the record for cross-contact decisions in a documented allergen protocol — insurers and franchisors already push this after allergen-death litigation. Ownership of a signed allergen call is a real consequential judgment.

  • plausible task resistance +2

    Task-mix shift within the same job: if fryers and clamshell grills automate the timed, single-item tier, what remains is short-order expediting — reading six simultaneous tickets, modifiers and allergy substitutions, improvising off-menu, holding plate timing across a mixed order. That residual is genuinely harder to mechanize than the fry basket.

The limit. Embodiment is already near maximum, so upside is capped: even with full CFPM-presence mandates and allergen accountability, the realistic ceiling is around 55-58/100. The threat vector is capital-intensive robotics plus menu simplification, and neither licensure nor trust premium meaningfully blocks a chain that redesigns the menu around what a machine can cook.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 206 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 12,410 $43,680 +22%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 9,990 $35,360 -1%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 4,460 $39,600 +10%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 4,430 $45,790 +28%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 3,850 $39,650 +11%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 2,280 $35,610 -1%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 1,940 $36,460 +2%
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA 1,830 $37,300 +4%

Best paid

Corvallis, OR 50 $54,020 +51%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 830 $50,870 +42%
Kahului-Wailuku, HI 110 $48,140 +34%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $35,880. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 47. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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