← Risk register SOC 15-2051 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Data Scientists

262,440 US workers · median $120,230/yr · Tech

EXPOSED

The modal data scientist spends most of the week on work AI already does credibly: writing pandas/SQL, cleaning and joining tables, building baseline models, tuning hyperparameters, generating charts, and writing up findings in decks and notebooks. What resists is upstream and downstream — turning a vague business question into a measurable target, deciding whether an observed lift is causal, catching leakage and biased sampling before a model ships, and standing behind a recommendation that moves pricing, credit, or headcount. No license protects the role, and it is fully screen-based, so the shrinkage lands on the analysis-execution tier while the framing-and-accountability tier holds.

10-year outlook: By 2035 fewer people write the analysis and more people are paid to define the question and sign off on the decision; teams get smaller and skew senior.

Score — 37/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 10 + 2 + 2 + 9 + 14 = 37.

Task resistance 10/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. At 10, roughly half your week — feature engineering scripts, gradient-boosting baselines, cross-validation loops, matplotlib panels, notebook write-ups — is now competently drafted from a prompt, while defining the label for "churn" in a business with three contract types, spotting that your training set leaked post-outcome fields, or choosing a difference-in-differences design over a naive A/B split still needs you at the whiteboard; it sits below 14 because those framing hours are a minority of logged time, and above 6 because a model that ships without them fails in production.

Embodiment 2/20

Fully desk- and screen-based. A 2 reflects that everything from data pull to stakeholder deck happens on a laptop against cloud compute, with the only physical residue being whiteboard sessions and in-person readouts that videoconference replaces without loss.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement. At 2 there is no board, no exam, no continuing-education requirement — a self-taught bootcamp graduate and a PhD hold the same title, and when a scoring model produces disparate impact under ECOA or the FCRA, the bank's compliance officers and counsel answer for it while your name appears nowhere on a filing.

Trust premium 9/20

Some relationship component. A 9 recognizes that the product manager who has watched you flag three bad metrics will accept your "that lift is seasonality" without a deck, and that institutional knowledge of which internal tables are trustworthy is genuinely personal — but the artifacts you ship are dashboards and models that keep working after you leave, so the relationship accelerates the work rather than being the work.

Judgment & accountability 14/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. 14 is earned by the calls with no correct procedure: whether a 0.7% AUC gain justifies a model that is unexplainable to a regulator, whether to tell leadership their favored experiment was underpowered from the start, whether known selection bias in the training population is tolerable for a pricing or credit-limit decision — you own these before anyone else can audit them, though it stops short of 17+ because a director or model-risk committee typically signs the deployment.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: judgment, trust

How to future-proof this job

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.