← Risk register SOC 39-1014 · reviewed 2026-08-11

First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services

103,190 US workers · median $48,560/yr · Personal Care

EXPOSED

The modal worker here runs a floor — a pool deck, ropes course, ski area, campground, theme park zone, or fitness center — assigning staff, watching for unsafe behavior, handling angry guests, and stepping in when a kid gets hurt or a ride stops. AI already eats the paperwork half of the job: shift scheduling, labor-cost reports, incident write-ups, training checklists, attendance forecasting. What it cannot do is stand in a wet, loud, crowded venue and decide in ten seconds whether to close the attraction, and be the person the parent yells at afterward.

10-year outlook: The clipboard-and-spreadsheet half of this job compresses into software over the next decade, so headcount thins toward fewer supervisors covering larger footprints, but someone certified still has to be physically on the deck when something goes wrong.

Score — 60/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 13 + 16 + 6 + 12 + 13 = 60.

Task resistance 13/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. Scheduling, payroll coding, incident-report drafting, and headcount forecasting are already software problems, but the other half of the day — walking a pool deck to catch a lifeguard whose scanning has gone slack, pulling a new hire aside mid-shift to re-teach a harness check, deciding staffing when three people call out on a 95-degree Saturday — needs a person present, which puts it at the top of mixed rather than into resistant.

Embodiment 16/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. The job is done standing in the environment being supervised: wet tile, ski slopes in weather, ropes-course platforms, camp grounds after dark, crowded midways — you do rescues and first aid yourself, physically clear a stuck ride queue, and cover a guard chair or belay station when short-staffed, which is uncontrolled-environment work rather than a facility walk-through.

Liability shield 6/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. Employers typically want lifeguard/CPR/AED, Ellis or Red Cross instructor cards, ride-operator or challenge-course certifications, and in some states a camp director credential — real gates, but they are renewable certifications, not a state licence that makes you personally sueable, so negligence claims land on the operator's insurer and the general manager rather than your name.

Trust premium 12/20

Some relationship component. Seasonal staff — teenagers and college students — stay or quit largely because of you, and repeat season-pass families and youth-league parents ask for the supervisor they know; but guests are mostly transient ticket-holders who would accept any competent person in your polo, so the relationship matters without being the product.

Judgment & accountability 13/20

Meaningful discretion. Closing a waterslide on a thunderstorm read, ejecting an intoxicated guest, calling EMS versus icing an injury, deciding whether a guard's lapse is a coaching moment or a termination, and choosing to evacuate a zone with 400 people in it are all yours in real time with a policy manual that cannot cover the specific call — the ceiling is the escalation path to a GM and corporate risk on the biggest incidents.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, physical-presence, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.