← Risk register SOC 33-1012 · reviewed 2026-08-11

First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives

154,610 US workers · median $106,040/yr · Protective Service

SAFE

A police sergeant or lieutenant spends the shift responding to scenes, taking incident command, making use-of-force and arrest-authority calls, and handling personnel discipline — none of which a model can own. The automatable slice is real but administrative: report review and correction, shift scheduling, crime-stat compilation, and drafting routine memos and grant paperwork. Sworn status and statutory authority mean a certified human must sign the arrest approval, the use-of-force review, and the pursuit termination decision.

10-year outlook: Headcount holds roughly steady; the paperwork half of the job compresses as report-writing and analytics automate, pushing sergeants further toward scene command, accountability review, and personnel oversight.

Score — 76/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 14 + 16 + 16 + 12 + 18 = 76.

Task resistance 14/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Approving a felony arrest at 0300, taking incident command on a barricaded-subject call, and sitting a subordinate down for a Garrity-warned interview are the bulk of the shift, and the software-friendly residue — CAD report kickbacks, roll-call scheduling, monthly UCR/NIBRS compilation — is why this sits at 14 and not 18.

Embodiment 16/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. Supervisors roll to the scene rather than watch it: foot pursuits, crowd lines, MVA and homicide scene control, physically supervising cell blocks and evidence handling, all in weather and traffic and hostile crowds, which puts it at 16 rather than 20 only because a real share of hours are spent at a desk on reports and CompStat prep.

Liability shield 16/20

Licensed human required and personally liable. POST/state certification is the statutory precondition for the sworn authority you exercise, your name goes on the use-of-force review and the pursuit-termination order, and §1983 supervisory-liability and failure-to-train claims land on you personally — decertification, not just termination, is the exposure.

Trust premium 12/20

Some relationship component. Your officers' willingness to tell you the truth about a bad stop before IA finds it, and the community-meeting standing you build in your sector, carry real weight, but the arrest, the call for service, and the report are executed on statutory authority regardless of who the sergeant is — hence 12, not 17.

Judgment & accountability 18/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. Deadly-force authorization, terminating a pursuit into a school zone, deciding whether a use-of-force incident goes to IA or ends with counseling, and a Graham v. Connor reasonableness call made in seconds with no supervisor above you on scene at night — these are unreviewable in the moment and litigated for years after.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, licensure, liability, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.