← Risk register SOC 33-1099 · reviewed 2026-08-11

First-Line Supervisors of Protective Service Workers, All Other

20,690 US workers · median $76,400/yr · Protective Service

EXPOSED

This title covers supervisors of security officers, lifeguards, crossing guards, animal control and gaming surveillance staff — people who post, brief and correct a physical crew across shifts, then respond in person when something goes wrong. The paperwork half of the job (shift rosters, post orders, incident report drafting, camera log review, training compliance tracking) is squarely in AI's wheelhouse and is already being absorbed by scheduling and video-analytics platforms. What survives is the part that requires a named human standing at the scene: deciding whether to escalate, restrain, evacuate or call police, and owning that call afterward in an investigation or lawsuit.

10-year outlook: Headcount holds roughly flat but the job narrows: the scheduling and reporting layer gets absorbed by software while pay and promotion concentrate in supervisors who can command a scene, train a crew and stand behind a use-of-force call.

Score — 59/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 12 + 15 + 6 + 11 + 15 = 59.

Task resistance 12/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. Roughly half the shift is rosters, post-order updates, incident-report drafting and camera-log review that scheduling and video-analytics platforms already generate, but the other half — walking the posts, briefing a relief crew face-to-face, correcting an officer who is freezing on a hostile subject, and being physically present at the incident — has no software substitute, which puts it mid-band rather than at 6 or at 16.

Embodiment 15/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are on your feet in parking structures, pool decks, casino floors, school crossings and animal-control calls where the environment is uncontrolled and the variable is a person or an animal behaving unpredictably; it stops short of 18-20 only because a meaningful share of the shift is spent in a monitoring station or office writing up what happened.

Liability shield 6/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. Most states require only a guard-card or unarmed/armed security registration and a few hours of training — no professional licence that names you personally, so the contract security firm or the property owner absorbs the negligent-security suit while your exposure is termination and a revoked card, hence 6 rather than the 11+ a licensed peace officer carries.

Trust premium 11/20

Some relationship component. Clients keep you because the account manager knows your name and your officers will actually show up sober and in uniform for you, which is real relationship capital — but the security contract is rebid on price and post coverage, and a replacement supervisor can inherit the site in a week, so the relationship is a retention factor rather than the product itself.

Judgment & accountability 15/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. The call to restrain, evacuate, pursue, use force or hand off to police is made in seconds with incomplete information and no supervisor above you on site, and you will defend that decision in an internal investigation, a police report and possibly a deposition; it lands at 15 rather than 18 because post orders and client protocols pre-define a large portion of your responses.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, judgment, trust

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.