← Risk register SOC 51-4034 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

16,710 US workers · median $50,620/yr · Production

EXPOSED

The tending tier — loading bar stock, cycling parts, gauging with calipers and micrometers, logging counts — is exactly what bar feeders, robotic loaders, in-process probing, and lights-out CNC cells already absorb, and CAM software plus AI now drafts G-code and tooling strategies that operators once wrote by hand. What holds is the setup and troubleshooting tier: fixturing an odd part, dialing tool offsets, reading chatter and chip color, chasing a tolerance drift on a live job, and swapping inserts on a machine that doesn't care what the program says. The modal worker here straddles both tiers, which is why the number sits near the border rather than in the safe zone.

10-year outlook: Employment keeps shrinking as automated cells and multitasking machines consolidate work, but shops will still pay well for setters who can fixture, program, and troubleshoot a job nobody has run before.

Score — 35/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 10 + 14 + 1 + 3 + 7 = 35.

Task resistance 10/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. Loading a bar feeder and pressing cycle-start is already lights-out work, but nobody has automated indicating a four-jaw chuck to a half-thou, hearing a boring bar start to chatter and dropping feed on the fly, or re-shimming a soft jaw because the casting came in oversize — the split between those two halves of your shift is what puts this at 10 and not 4 or 15.

Embodiment 14/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are inside the machine envelope with a dial indicator, changing inserts and toolholders, blowing out chips, dealing with coolant mist and hot swarf, and hauling bar stock — 14 rather than 18 because it's your own guarded machine on a shop floor, not a rooftop or a trench where conditions change on you.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement. No licence, no stamp, no certificate anyone checks: a shop can hire you Monday on a trial run, and when a shaft goes out of tolerance the liability sits with the QC sign-off and the company's contract, not your name — the 1 rather than 0 is only the OSHA lockout/tagout duty you personally carry at the machine.

Trust premium 3/20

Anonymous artifact production. The turned part ships in a bin and the customer never learns who ran it; the 3 reflects that a programmer or shift lead comes to you specifically when a job won't hold size, which is internal reputation, not a client relationship that follows you.

Judgment & accountability 7/20

Meaningful discretion. You decide when to bump an offset, when an insert is done, and when to stop the run and call it scrap — real calls with real money in them, but bounded by the print, the tolerance block, and the setup sheet, which is why this is 7 and not the 14+ of someone deciding what the tolerance should be.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Model Makers, Metal and Plastic EXPOSED · 50/100 · you already have ~81% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Critical Thinking, Operations Analysis, Repairing, Active Learning

Maintenance Workers, Machinery EXPOSED · 63/100 · you already have ~77% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Repairing, Troubleshooting, Installation, Active Learning

Control and Valve Installers and Repairers, Except Mechanical Door SAFE · 68/100 · you already have ~76% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Repairing, Active Learning, Critical Thinking, Writing

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.