← Risk register SOC 11-9199 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Managers, All Other

622,190 US workers · median $141,900/yr · Management

EXPOSED

This is a residual bucket — everything from program managers and operations managers to compliance and facilities leads — so the modal worker is a mid-level manager who supervises 5–20 people, owns a budget line, and reports upward. The reporting layer of that job (status decks, variance write-ups, meeting summaries, scheduling, policy drafting, KPI dashboards) is already largely automatable, while hiring, firing, performance calls, cross-team negotiation, and owning a bad outcome are not. The real risk is span-of-control compression: AI reporting tools let one manager cover more people, so headcount thins rather than the role disappearing.

10-year outlook: Managerial headcount in this bucket thins by attrition as AI absorbs the reporting and coordination layer, and the survivors are the ones with real decision rights over people and money.

Score — 46/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 11 + 6 + 2 + 12 + 15 = 46.

Task resistance 11/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. The recurring artifacts you produce — weekly status decks, budget variance narratives, headcount forecasts, SOP redlines, action-item tracking out of meetings — are exactly what LLMs draft competently from your own systems of record, but the parts that put this at 11 rather than 5 are the ones with no source document: telling a strong performer they didn't get the promotion, deciding which of two departments eats the shortfall, and holding a vendor to a commitment that was never written down.

Embodiment 6/20

Some physical or field component. A 6 reflects that most of your week is Teams, spreadsheets, and a conference room, with a real but bounded physical tail — walking the floor or site, being present for an investigation or a termination, showing up when a facility, shipment, or event goes sideways — none of which requires you to handle equipment or work in conditions a screen couldn't reach.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement. Nothing in this bucket requires a licence to hold the title; PMP, SHRM-CP, or CFM help you get hired but no board can pull them in a way that stops someone else from doing your job, and when something goes wrong the exposure lands on the entity or on an officer who signs, not on you personally.

Trust premium 12/20

Some relationship component. At 12 you are carried by relationships that are real but transferable: your team follows you because you handle escalations and defend their headcount, and peer managers take your calls because you've traded favors for two years — but a competent successor rebuilds that in a quarter or two, which is why this isn't the 16+ of a role where the client leaves when you do.

Judgment & accountability 15/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. A 15 is about ownership of calls with no correct answer and no one above you to absorb them: which of five underfunded priorities gets cut, whether a performance problem is coachable or terminal, when to escalate a compliance concern that will embarrass a colleague — and if the project misses, the postmortem names you, not the tooling that produced your forecast.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: judgment, trust

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Construction Managers EXPOSED · 65/100 · you already have ~76% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Management of Financial Resources, Quality Control Analysis, Management of Personnel Resources, Management of Material Resources

Civil Engineers EXPOSED · 63/100 · you already have ~69% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Science, Operations Analysis, Mathematics, Technology Design

First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers SAFE · 80/100 · you already have ~56% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Equipment Selection, Repairing, Operation and Control

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.