← Risk register SOC 47-2181 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Roofers

135,490 US workers · median $55,440/yr · Construction

SAFE

Tearing off old shingles, setting underlayment, flashing chimneys and valleys, and walking a pitched wet deck at 30 feet are tasks no current robot performs at cost. The screen-based slice of the job — takeoffs, material estimates, bidding, insurance claim documentation — is genuinely automatable and AI already drafts it from drone imagery. Licensure is contractor-level and state-dependent rather than personal, so the moat here is physical, not regulatory.

10-year outlook: Demand stays tied to weather, housing stock age, and re-roof cycles; the labor is safe for a decade while estimating and claims work compresses into software, so the money shifts toward whoever holds the license and the customer relationship.

Score — 70/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 19 + 20 + 8 + 11 + 12 = 70.

Task resistance 19/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Stripping three layers of asphalt down to rotten decking, cutting and bending step flashing to fit a chimney that isn't square, and hand-nailing a hip ridge on a 9:12 pitch are sequential judgment-plus-force tasks with no fixed geometry — the only slice a machine touches is the estimate, which is why this sits at 19 and not 20.

Embodiment 20/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You work at height on a surface that changes friction with dew, on a deck that may give way under you, in 140°F attic-radiated heat with a nail gun, torch, or hot kettle — there is no controlled-environment version of this job at all.

Liability shield 8/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. Most states license the roofing contractor or the business entity, not the individual on the roof, so the crew member's name appears on no permit and no warranty; the 8 reflects that OSHA fall-protection rules and manufacturer certifications (GAF Master Elite, torch-down endorsements) do impose real personal training requirements that an unqualified hand can't fake.

Trust premium 11/20

Some relationship component. Homeowners hire the company off referrals and the roof warranty, and residential storm work does turn on whether the person on the ladder explains the deck rot honestly — but the shingles are anonymous once installed, and commercial GC-awarded work goes to price and schedule, keeping this at 11 rather than in the relationship-is-the-product range.

Judgment & accountability 12/20

Meaningful discretion. Calls like whether sheathing is sound enough to nail into, how to detail a valley where two different pitches meet, or whether to tarp and stop when the wind picks up are yours in the moment with a leak or a fall as the consequence — but shingle exposure, nailing patterns, and fastener counts are dictated by manufacturer spec and code, which caps the discretion at 12.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 79/100 — SAFE, agreeing with the verdict above.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, physical-presence, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.