← Risk register SOC 49-3093 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Tire Repairers and Changers

108,410 US workers · median $37,710/yr · Trades

EXPOSED

Nearly the whole job is physical: breaking beads, mounting and balancing tires, torquing lug nuts, patching punctures, and doing roadside service calls in weather and traffic. Language AI does not touch that work; the exposure is not automation but shop-level tooling (automated mount-and-balance machines, TPMS diagnostics that replace guesswork) and the low wages and low licensure that come with a procedure-driven role. This is a job that persists but does not command a premium.

10-year outlook: The hands stay employed through 2035 — vehicles still ride on rubber and nobody has built a robot that can change a tire on a highway shoulder — but pay stays compressed unless you move into commercial, fleet, or diagnostic work.

Score — 49/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 16 + 18 + 3 + 7 + 5 = 49.

Task resistance 16/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Breaking a rusted bead on a 20-year-old rim, wrestling a run-flat onto a low-profile wheel, and finding a slow leak by dunking the tire in the tank are tasks no software performs — the 16 rather than 19 reflects that mount-and-balance machines, TPMS relearn tools, and road-force balancers already carry the parts of the job that used to take feel and experience.

Embodiment 18/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You work bent over in a bay or kneeling on a highway shoulder with a torque wrench, handling 80-lb truck tires, hot brake components, and 120-psi inflation cages — the 18 is for uncontrolled roadside service in rain, snow, and live traffic, short of the 20 reserved for jobs with no fixed base at all.

Liability shield 3/20

No licence, no signature requirement. No state licenses tire changers; a shop may want TIA certification or a DOT medical card for service-truck driving, but a wheel that comes off at 70 mph becomes the shop's insurance claim and the manager's problem, not a personal license revocation, which is why this sits at 3 and not 8.

Trust premium 7/20

Some relationship component. Regulars ask for the guy who remembers their fleet and doesn't strip lug studs, and 24-hour roadside customers remember who showed up — but tires are bought on price and wait time, and most walk-ins never learn your name, so the relationship adds 7, not 13.

Judgment & accountability 5/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs. Tread depth minimums, DOT date codes, patch-vs-plug rules, and manufacturer torque specs are written down and enforced; the discretion you do own — condemning a sidewall-damaged casing or refusing to remount a tire on a bent rim — is real but bounded, which is a 5 rather than a 2.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, physical-presence

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Programming fundamentals partner link · Systems analysis & design partner link

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Automotive Body and Related Repairers EXPOSED · 65/100 · you already have ~80% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operations Analysis, Programming, Active Learning, Equipment Selection

Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~73% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Systems Analysis, Systems Evaluation, Equipment Selection

Rail Car Repairers SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~72% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Repairing, Troubleshooting, Operations Analysis

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.