← Risk register SOC 41-3011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Advertising Sales Agents

91,700 US workers · median $64,820/yr · Sales

EXPOSED

The paperwork core of this job — building media kits, drafting proposals, pulling rate cards, prospecting lists, cold-call scripts, campaign performance recaps — is exactly what current AI does at usable quality, and self-serve programmatic platforms already removed the human seller from most small-account transactions. What persists is the mid-to-large account relationship: sitting with a regional advertiser, arguing for a budget shift, absorbing blame when a campaign underdelivers. Expect the occupation to shrink toward fewer agents carrying bigger books, with the transactional tier absorbed by dashboards.

10-year outlook: By 2035 headcount is materially lower and concentrated in senior account roles selling complex custom packages, while standard inventory sells itself through platforms.

US employment, 2019–2025-29.3%
129,74091,700 workers

This fall is concentrated in 2020 and has not recovered since.

Median pay $53,310 → $64,820 -2.7% in real terms (nominal +21.6%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

-6.4% 103,700 → 97,100 on the projections basis

Exposed, and shrinking

Both signals point the same way: the tasks are largely automatable and the BLS projects -6.4% by 2034. This is the case where the score and the forecast agree, and it is the one worth taking seriously.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~9,300 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

AgentBrokerIdea ManSolicitorTime BuyerIdea WorkerSpace BuyerTime BrokerAccount PlannerSales ConsultantSales SpecialistAdvertising AgentSales CoordinatorAccount SpecialistSite Leasing AgentSales RepresentativeSite Promotion AgentAdvertising AssistantAdvertising SolicitorMarketing CoordinatorAdvertising ConsultantRadio Time SalespersonAdvertising CoordinatorMarketing Representative

Score — 35/100 resistance

Holding it up: trust premium (11/20). Weakest point: liability shield (2/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 8 + 6 + 2 + 11 + 8 = 35. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 8/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier An 8 reflects the split: quote generation, insertion-order prep, audience-reach math, and post-campaign recap decks are already machine work, while the part that isn't — walking into a car dealership's back office and talking a skeptical owner off a competitor's schedule — still fills a real share of the week, which is why this sits at 8 rather than the 4 a pure inside-sales quoting role would get.

Embodiment 6/20

Some physical or field component A 6 covers the drive time: territory agents still make in-person calls on local advertisers, walk retail locations, and work trade shows and remotes, but nothing about the job requires hands on equipment or an uncontrolled site, so it lands above desk-only and well below a field technician.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement A 2 is right because nothing licenses an ad sales agent — no state board, no exam, no CE hours; the station or publisher's contract and its standards department carry any exposure on false-advertising or FCC political-rate issues, and you can be replaced by anyone the sales manager hires Monday.

Trust premium 11/20

Some relationship component An 11 recognizes that renewals on mid-size accounts genuinely follow the rep — the agency buyer who takes your call, the local advertiser who trusts your read on their Q4 — but the media property, its ratings, and its rate card do most of the persuading, so the relationship is a real asset without being the product itself.

Judgment & accountability 8/20

Meaningful discretion An 8 fits the discretion you actually hold: proposing spend allocation across dayparts or placements, deciding when to discount or add value within the manager-approved floor, and calling how to handle a make-good after underdelivery — real calls, but bounded by rate cards, credit approval, and sign-off above you.

This occupation has already been through one. Headcount fell 32.8% between 2017 and 2025 — 136,520 to 91,700 — while the median wage held roughly flat in real terms (+ 0.1% after inflation). A job being commoditised usually loses pay along with headcount. One that shrinks by half while pay holds is leaving a specialist core behind, and the score above was assigned from the occupation title without sight of that history — so it may be describing the job this used to be rather than the people still doing it. Why this is a known limit.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: trust, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Coursera — teaching and instructional design, audit free free to audit · Khan Academy — physics, chemistry and biology from the ground up free · Coursera — engineering and procurement courses, auditable without paying free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — full course materials across every department, free free · edX — systems thinking and evaluation methods free to audit · Khan Academy — reading and vocabulary, all levels, free free · Coursera — critical thinking and logic, audit free free to audit · Coursera — work planning and personal productivity free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — finance and accounting free · Purdue OWL — the standard reference for professional writing free

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products EXPOSED · 50/100 · you already have ~81% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Instructing, Science, Equipment Selection, Active Learning

Insurance Sales Agents EXPOSED · 45/100 · you already have ~76% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Systems Evaluation, Reading Comprehension, Critical Thinking, Time Management

Fundraising Managers EXPOSED · 49/100 · you already have ~74% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Management of Financial Resources, Systems Evaluation, Critical Thinking, Writing

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 46/100, still EXPOSED.

3 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +4

    Task-mix shift is genuinely two-tier here: if self-serve platforms absorb all sub-$50k transactional accounts, the residual role is negotiating annual upfront commitments, multi-property packages and make-good terms under contested attribution data — work that current models cannot do because the counterparty is a human with a budget mandate. Watch for the ratio of agents-per-revenue at local broadcast/newspaper groups (Gray, Nexstar, Sinclair earnings calls) as headcount falls faster than ad revenue.

  • plausible judgment accountability +4

    If make-good and credit authority is formally delegated to the seller — i.e. the agent decides whether an underdelivering campaign gets bonus inventory, a refund, or nothing, and owns the account P&L including bad-debt writeoffs on their book — the role owns consequential ambiguous calls. Visible in comp plans that shift from gross-billing commission to margin-based commission with clawback.

  • plausible trust premium +3

    If political advertising rules keep tightening — FCC lowest-unit-charge compliance, state disclosure laws, and platform bans on AI-generated political creative — political and issue buyers may specifically require a named human station rep to place and verify the buy each cycle. This is narrow and cyclical, and applies mostly to broadcast/local sellers rather than digital.

The limit. Even with all plausible levers, this lands in the mid-40s and still describes a shrinking occupation: the levers raise the value of the surviving jobs without raising their number. The transactional tier does not come back.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 215 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 13,210 $99,010 +53%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 5,230 $80,360 +24%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 2,830 $75,590 +17%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 2,770 $105,320 +62%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 2,390 $61,150 -6%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 2,200 $62,880 -3%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 2,050 $61,050 -6%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 1,670 $62,930 -3%

Best paid

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 380 $113,250 +75%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 2,770 $105,320 +62%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 13,210 $99,010 +53%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $64,820. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 35. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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