← Risk register SOC 19-4012 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Agricultural Technicians

15,130 US workers · median $49,630/yr · Science

EXPOSED

The modal ag tech splits time between field plots/greenhouses/labs — laying out trial blocks, tagging plants, pulling soil cores, running tissue and seed assays, calibrating instruments — and a screen tier of data entry, spreadsheet cleanup, and routine report writing that AI plus sensor networks eats first. Sampling and instrument handling in muddy, variable field conditions still needs hands and legs, but no license protects the role and the scientist above signs off on the science. Drone imagery, in-line soil sensors, and automated plate readers shrink the headcount needed per acre of trial rather than eliminating the job.

10-year outlook: The job persists but thins: sensors and automated scoring absorb the data-collection and reporting hours, leaving a smaller corps of technicians who plant trials, run and fix instruments, and ground-truth the machines.

US employment, 2021–2025+11.6%
13,56015,130 workers

Headcount grew steadily across the period.

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+4.3%

Percentage only. The projection counts a different population from the 15,130 above — it includes self-employed workers, which for this occupation is most of them, so the two headcounts are not comparable.

Exposed, but growing

AI can already do a lot of these tasks, and the BLS still expects +4.3% more of these jobs by 2034. Demand for the output is growing faster than the work is being automated away — the mechanism BLS gives for software developers, and the combination people most often misread as an error.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~2,900 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

AgronomistCow TesterSeed ExpertSeed TesterBlood TesterSeed AnalystBiotechnicianCattle TesterAcidity TesterBiological AideCrop ConsultantCrop SpecialistField AssistantMoisture TesterSeed SpecialistField AgronomistFowl Blood TesterDairy TechnologistFeed Research AidePlant Control AideAgronomy ConsultantAgronomy SpecialistChemical ApplicatorExtension Associate

Score — 40/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (14/20). Weakest point: liability shield (3/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 11 + 14 + 3 + 5 + 7 = 40. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 11/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier Hand-thinning a variety trial, tagging individual plants for phenotyping, and pulling soil cores on a grid still need a person walking the plot, but the yield-data transcription, plate-reader output cleanup, and standard-format trial reports are already machine work — that split is what puts it at 11 rather than 15.

Embodiment 14/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments You are in mud, greenhouses at 95°F, and grain bins on the same week, hauling augers and sample bags across uneven ground and handling live plant material and pesticide-treated plots — uncontrolled outdoor work, though the lab bench and instrument room half of the job keeps it off the 18-plus ladder-and-livestock tier.

Liability shield 3/20

No licence, no signature requirement No state licenses agricultural technicians; a pesticide applicator card or a two-year ag degree may be listed as preferred, and even the GLP-relevant signature on a trial record belongs to the study director above you, so the 3 reflects credentials that help you get hired but shield nothing.

Trust premium 5/20

Anonymous artifact production Your soil nitrate numbers and germination counts are read as data, not as your data — the seed company or extension scientist consuming them can swap technicians between seasons without any loss, and the 5 rather than 0 only covers the working familiarity with cooperating growers whose fields host the plots.

Judgment & accountability 7/20

Meaningful discretion Trials come with a written protocol specifying plot layout, sampling depth, and replication, so your discretion is real but bounded — deciding a plot is compromised by flooding and flagging it, or calling an instrument out of calibration mid-run, are the calls you own, and the protocol deviation still goes upstairs for approval.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, physical-presence

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: CS50x, Harvard — how software is actually built free · edX — systems thinking and evaluation methods free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — operations management free · MIT OpenCourseWare — systems analysis and engineering free · OSHA Outreach Training — the 10- and 30-hour cards most employers ask for low · edX — operations management and process monitoring courses free to audit · Apprenticeship.gov — industrial maintenance and millwright programs paid to train · Apprenticeship.gov — paid, employer-sponsored trade apprenticeships, searchable by trade and ZIP paid to train · Coursera — quality control and inspection courses, auditable free free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Agricultural Engineers EXPOSED · 52/100 · you already have ~71% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Technology Design, Systems Evaluation, Operations Analysis, Systems Analysis

Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators SAFE · 68/100 · you already have ~68% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operation and Control, Operations Monitoring, Equipment Maintenance, Repairing

Plant and System Operators, All Other EXPOSED · 57/100 · you already have ~67% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Quality Control Analysis, Equipment Maintenance, Operations Monitoring, Operation and Control

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 53/100, still EXPOSED.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +3

    Task-mix shift: once sensor networks and LLM report drafting absorb the data-entry/spreadsheet/routine-report tier, the residual job is chain-of-custody sampling, anomaly triage on instrument drift, and salvaging trials when plots flood or a treatment fails — the genuine judgment tier. Watch for job postings that drop 'data entry' and add 'trial troubleshooting / QA' language.

  • plausible liability shield +4

    GLP study-personnel requirements already name individuals responsible for raw data integrity; a formal certification requirement (e.g. state-mandated Certified Crop Adviser or a licensed 'sampling technician' credential tied to hemp THC compliance or PFAS/biosolids soil testing under state ag-department rules) that makes a named human sign the sample record and be personally sanctionable.

  • plausible embodiment +3

    Regulatory sampling protocols that require physical human-collected specimens with documented chain of custody — e.g. EPA FIFRA Good Laboratory Practice (40 CFR 160) residue trials and USDA AMS pesticide data program sampling, plus state seed-certification field inspections (AOSCA) — being extended to hemp/THC compliance and PFAS soil testing, where a drone or in-line sensor reading is not an admissible sample.

  • plausible judgment accountability +3

    If AI-generated agronomic prescriptions require a named human to accept or reject them before field application — analogous to insurer or seed-company contract terms requiring a signed technician deviation report when a trial protocol is broken — the role owns the consequential call rather than the scientist above.

The limit. No realistic route to a trust premium: buyers of trial data want defensible numbers, not human-collected ones, and the customer relationship sits with the PI or the seed/chemical company. Liability gains are capped because the supervising scientist or study director remains the legal signer in GLP work.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 40 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 500 $63,630 +28%
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA 460 $62,680 +26%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 350 $54,380 +10%
Madison, WI 250 $47,030 -5%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 220 $46,800 -6%
Boise City, ID 210 $49,220 -1%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 210 $52,600 +6%
Kansas City, MO-KS 170 $51,380 +4%

Best paid

Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 30 $66,540 +34%
Lansing-East Lansing, MI 120 $64,790 +31%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 500 $63,630 +28%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $49,630. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 40. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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