← Risk register SOC 19-2011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Astronomers

2,120 US workers · median $128,820/yr · Science

EXPOSED

Astronomy is largely screen work — pipeline code, photometry and spectral fitting, catalog cross-matching, literature review, and manuscript drafting — and AI already does credible versions of most of it, with ML classifiers outperforming humans on transient and morphology sorting. What resists is deciding which questions are worth years of telescope time, designing and commissioning instruments, defending survey systematics, and owning the claim when a result is extraordinary. There is no licensure and no signature requirement; the field's real constraint is that only ~2,000 US positions exist and they are gated by grants and faculty lines, not by automation.

10-year outlook: By 2035 AI will write most of the code and much of the prose in astronomy papers, and the surviving jobs will concentrate in instrumentation, survey calibration, and collaboration leadership — in a field whose headcount is set by federal grant budgets more than by AI.

Score — 37/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 10 + 5 + 1 + 8 + 13 = 37.

Task resistance 10/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. Reduction pipelines, aperture photometry, redshift fitting and cross-matching against Gaia/SDSS catalogs are already scripted and increasingly ML-driven, but writing a competitive TAC or NASA ADAP proposal, choosing the observing strategy that survives moonlight and weather constraints, and diagnosing an unexpected instrumental systematic in the data still take a person who knows the hardware — that mix of automatable analysis over irreplaceable framing is why this lands at 10 rather than 5 or 15.

Embodiment 5/20

Some physical or field component. Most astronomers work from an office and a queue-scheduled interface, with the physical component limited to observing runs at Kitt Peak or Mauna Kea, cryostat and detector work for instrument builders, and occasional lab alignment — real but episodic and confined to controlled domes, which is why it sits at 5 rather than the 12+ of someone whose week is spent on a mountain.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement. There is no state licence, no board certification, and no stamped deliverable in astronomy; the only formal gates are a PhD and peer review, and a retraction damages a reputation rather than triggering legal exposure — hence 1 rather than 0, since institutional review boards and export-control rules touch some instrument and defense-adjacent work.

Trust premium 8/20

Some relationship component. Papers are judged on data and method by anonymous referees, and citation counts do not care who you are, but proposal panels, long-running collaborations like LSST or ALMA working groups, and graduate advising all run on named reputation and personal standing — enough relational weight for 8, well short of a practice where clients hire you specifically.

Judgment & accountability 13/20

Meaningful discretion. When you claim a planet in the habitable zone, a 5-sigma detection at the edge of your noise floor, or a cosmological parameter that disagrees with Planck, you personally decide whether the systematics are understood well enough to publish, and that call is unfalsifiable in the moment and career-defining afterward — 13 rather than higher only because no one's safety or money rides on the answer.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 36/100 — EXPOSED, agreeing with the verdict above.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: judgment, trust

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers EXPOSED · 55/100 · you already have ~79% of the skill profile

Engineering Teachers, Postsecondary EXPOSED · 52/100 · you already have ~75% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Instructing

Atmospheric, Earth, Marine, and Space Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary EXPOSED · 54/100 · you already have ~75% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Instructing, Speaking

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.