← Risk register SOC 25-1051 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Atmospheric, Earth, Marine, and Space Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary

9,900 US workers · median $103,170/yr · Education

EXPOSED

Lecture prep, syllabus writing, problem-set generation, grading, and literature summaries for intro geology/meteorology/oceanography courses are already substantially automatable, and enrollment pressure in small earth-science departments is a bigger near-term threat than AI itself. What holds is the embodied and relational core: running field camps and research cruises, teaching students to read outcrops and calibrate instruments, supervising labs, and advising graduate researchers who need a human to vouch for their work. No licensure protects the role, so the moat is field instruction, funded research, and mentorship rather than credentialing.

10-year outlook: The lecture-delivery half of the job thins out and small departments consolidate, but faculty anchored in field instruction, lab supervision, and funded research keep their positions through the decade.

Score — 54/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 12 + 12 + 3 + 14 + 13 = 54.

Task resistance 12/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. A 12 sits above the desk-bound humanities lecturer because half your teaching load is irreducible — taking students to a road cut and making them argue about the contact, calibrating a sonde on a cruise, troubleshooting a mass spec — but the intro-course machinery of writing lectures on plate tectonics, generating problem sets on geostrophic balance, and grading multiple-choice exams for 200-seat GEOL 101 is now largely machine work, which keeps it out of the 14+ band.

Embodiment 12/20

Some physical or field component. Field camp in the Wasatch, a two-week berth on a UNOLS vessel, and hands-on rock saw and thin-section lab supervision put you well past screen-only, but the reason this is 12 and not 17 is that the majority of contact hours in most academic years happen in a lecture hall and an office, with the uncontrolled-environment work concentrated in a summer session or one field methods course.

Liability shield 3/20

No licence, no signature requirement. There is no license to teach oceanography — no state board, no PE stamp, no equivalent of the Professional Geologist registration that consulting geologists in states like Texas actually need — so the 3 reflects only that field trips and shipboard work carry institutional safety duties and small-boat or research-diver certifications that a non-human cannot hold.

Trust premium 14/20

The human relationship is the product. 14 is earned on the graduate side: your name on a dissertation committee, the recommendation letter that gets a student a USGS or NOAA postdoc, and the years of co-authorship where students learn your judgment about which data to trust — that relationship is the product, though the anonymous intro-survey lecture that most of your FTE is measured against is what stops this from reaching 17.

Judgment & accountability 13/20

Meaningful discretion. Deciding a student's field mapping is publishable, calling off a traverse when weather turns, judging whether an anomalous isotope result is instrumentation or discovery, and setting the ambiguous line between struggling and unqualified in a qualifying exam are all yours to own — 13 rather than 16 because these calls are reviewable by committees, department chairs, and IRB/safety officers rather than being final and unappealable.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, trust, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Nurse Anesthetists SAFE · 89/100 · you already have ~54% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operation and Control, Equipment Selection, Operations Monitoring, Quality Control Analysis

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.