← Risk register SOC 13-1041 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Compliance Officers

417,070 US workers · median $80,730/yr · Business

EXPOSED

The bulk of the job — reading regulations, screening transactions and filings against rule sets, drafting policies, assembling audit evidence, writing findings reports — is exactly the text-and-pattern work current AI does at usable quality, and RegTech vendors are already shipping it. What holds is the accountable layer: the named Chief Compliance Officer or BSA Officer whom regulators can personally sanction, the judgment call on whether an ambiguous transaction is escalated, and the human who sits across from an examiner. The modal compliance officer today sits closer to the screening-and-documenting tier than the accountable tier, which is why this scores as exposed rather than safe.

10-year outlook: Headcount in transaction screening and policy documentation shrinks meaningfully by 2035 while a smaller, better-paid tier of named accountable officers and investigators absorbs the judgment work.

US employment, 2019–2025+31.3%
317,600417,070 workers

Headcount grew steadily across the period.

Median pay $69,050 → $80,730 -6.5% in real terms (nominal +16.9%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+3% 418,000 → 430,300 on the projections basis

Exposed, but growing

AI can already do a lot of these tasks, and the BLS still expects +3% more of these jobs by 2034. Demand for the output is growing faster than the work is being automated away — the mechanism BLS gives for software developers, and the combination people most often misread as an error.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~33,300 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

CoronerExaminerExporterImporterCargo AgentCargo BrokerEntry WriterExport AgentImport AgentCustoms AgentTest ExaminerAction OfficerBoarding AgentCounty CoronerCustoms BrokerField ExaminerForms ExaminerPassport ClerkCity SanitarianCustoms AnalystDriver ExaminerState InspectorAir Export AgentAir Import Agent

Score — 42/100 resistance

Holding it up: judgment & accountability (13/20). Weakest point: embodiment (5/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 7 + 5 + 9 + 8 + 13 = 42. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 7/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier Alert adjudication, control testing, policy mapping to new rules, KYC file review and periodic risk assessments are all document-in/document-out work that transaction monitoring and RegTech platforms already draft or clear at first pass — a 7 rather than a 3 because interviewing a business line about why a control failed, and negotiating remediation deadlines with people who don't report to you, still needs a human in the room.

Embodiment 5/20

Some physical or field component There is a physical tail — walking the trading floor or branch, observing a manufacturing line for OSHA or EPA conformance, pulling paper files during an on-site exam, and travelling to subsidiary offices — but it is scheduled, indoor, and a minority of the calendar, which puts it just above pure desk work rather than in the field-inspector range.

Liability shield 9/20

Certification preferred, not legally required No licence is required to be a compliance officer, and most of the 417,000 in this SOC hold CAMS, CRCM or CCEP credentials that are employer preferences rather than a legal gate — the 9 reflects that a specific subset (the designated BSA/AML officer under 31 CFR 1020.210, the FINRA-registered Series 14 supervisor, the named CCO) can be individually fined or barred, and that personal exposure is real but attaches to a few titles, not the job family.

Trust premium 8/20

Some relationship component Examiners, auditors and internal business partners do come to rely on a specific person's track record for straight answers and credible remediation commitments, but the deliverables — testing memos, SAR narratives, board reports — are institutional products that survive your replacement, so the relationship greases the work rather than being the work.

Judgment & accountability 13/20

Meaningful discretion Deciding whether an ambiguous wire is escalated to a SAR, whether a conflict is disclosable or disqualifying, and whether to self-report to a regulator are calls made on incomplete facts with legal consequences either way and no procedure that closes them — the 13 rather than 16 reflects that in most shops those calls are ratified by the CCO, legal, or a committee before they leave the building.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works · 1 deployment report on file

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: liability, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: OSHA Outreach Training — the 10- and 30-hour cards most employers ask for low · Coursera — communication and interpersonal skills free to audit · Coursera — negotiation, influence and persuasion courses free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — operations management free · Coursera — customer service and client-facing skill courses free to audit · Learning How to Learn — the most-taken course on Coursera, and free free to audit · edX — supply chain and inventory management free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Detectives and Criminal Investigators SAFE · 69/100 · you already have ~84% of the skill profile

Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers SAFE · 82/100 · you already have ~73% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operation and Control, Social Perceptiveness, Persuasion

Emergency Management Directors EXPOSED · 59/100 · you already have ~67% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operations Analysis, Service Orientation, Learning Strategies, Management of Material Resources

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 58/100, still EXPOSED.

5 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening judgment accountability +4

    Task-mix shift: if vendor tooling absorbs alert triage, evidence assembly and policy drafting, the residual role is escalation decisions, SAR/no-SAR calls, examiner defense, and adjudicating where the model was wrong. The occupation genuinely has two tiers, and the surviving tier owns consequential ambiguous calls.

  • already happening liability shield +3

    Model-risk-management rules (SR 11-7 extended explicitly to AI compliance tooling, or NYDFS Part 504-style transaction-monitoring certification broadened) requiring a named human to validate and sign off on each automated screening model before deployment and after each material change. NYDFS Part 504 already requires an annual certification by a senior officer for AML transaction monitoring systems — extending that pattern to other jurisdictions and to sanctions/fraud models is a watchable event.

  • already happening judgment accountability +2

    Explicit human-in-the-loop mandates for adverse automated decisions: EU AI Act Article 14 human oversight duties for high-risk systems (including creditworthiness and employment screening) and Colorado SB 24-205-style state AI acts, where a compliance function must own and document the override decision on individual adverse outcomes.

  • plausible liability shield +4

    Named-individual accountability regimes extending below the CCO level: FinCEN/FFIEC-style requirements that a designated BSA Officer personally attest to the adequacy of AI-driven alert triage, or a US analogue of the UK FCA/PRA Senior Managers & Certification Regime that assigns statements of responsibility to compliance staff below the C-suite. Also concrete: SEC Rule 206(4)-7 annual review being interpreted to require a named human's signed certification that model-generated surveillance output was reviewed, following the Gurbir Grewal-era 'compliance officer as gatekeeper' enforcement posture.

  • plausible task resistance +3

    Same two-tier compression: the remaining work becomes contested interpretation of new rules with no precedent, negotiating remediation scope with an examiner, and internal investigations involving interviews and uncooperative witnesses — none of which current tools do at usable quality. Note this raises the score of the remaining jobs, not the number of them.

The limit. Trust premium has no realistic route here — the buyer is an internal budget holder treating compliance as cost, not a client paying for a human; only regulators create the demand. Embodiment has none. And every liability lever concentrates protection in a shrinking named-officer layer while the screening tier is displaced, so headcount can fall sharply even as the register score for surviving roles rises.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 391 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 23,380 $101,050 +25%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 17,700 $94,810 +17%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 13,820 $100,200 +24%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 12,530 $77,760 -4%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 10,920 $103,940 +29%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 10,530 $79,770 -1%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 9,170 $72,810 -10%
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX 8,450 $78,860 -2%

Best paid

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 2,690 $123,730 +53%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 7,500 $118,890 +47%
Bellingham, WA 640 $109,550 +36%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $80,730. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

Goldman Sachs · MVB Bank · IAG

6 of 8 reported cases, with sources

2 more in the dispatch

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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