← Risk register SOC 45-1011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers

27,960 US workers · median $59,320/yr · Agriculture

EXPOSED

This is a boots-in-the-field job: walking crop rows and orchards, judging when a block is ready to pick, assigning crews to tasks, fixing what breaks, and enforcing safety on moving equipment — none of which a language model can do. The automatable slice is the paperwork layer: crew scheduling, payroll and piece-rate tallies, harvest yield logs, H-2A and OSHA compliance records, and pesticide application reports, all of which farm management software plus AI is absorbing quickly. Licensure is thin (pesticide applicator certification in some states), so the moat is physical presence and on-the-spot judgment, not regulation.

10-year outlook: The role persists because someone has to be standing in the field, but the administrative half thins out and each supervisor covers more acres with software doing the scheduling and record-keeping.

Score — 60/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 14 + 18 + 5 + 10 + 13 = 60.

Task resistance 14/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Deciding that this block of strawberries is at picking maturity while the next row needs two more days, then redeploying a 30-person crew mid-morning when a picker goes down or a conveyor jams, is judgment made by walking and touching the crop — it sits at 14 rather than 18 because the recordkeeping half of the day (piece-rate tallies, yield logs, H-2A hour reports) is already being pulled into farm-management platforms.

Embodiment 18/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are outdoors in heat, dust, mud and cold for most of the shift, climbing on tractors and harvesters, checking irrigation lines and pruning cuts, standing on a fishing deck or a felling site where footing and weather change hourly — the 18 reflects genuinely uncontrolled terrain, short of 20 only because part of the week goes to an office or truck cab for scheduling and compliance paperwork.

Liability shield 5/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. There is no supervisor licence in agriculture: a state pesticide applicator certification (and sometimes a commercial driver's licence or first-aid card) is the whole credential stack, and when a worker is injured the citation lands on the employer under the OSHA general duty clause and the Worker Protection Standard, not on you personally — hence 5 rather than 0, since that applicator card is a real legal requirement someone must hold.

Trust premium 10/20

Some relationship component. Crews return year after year for the supervisor they trust to pay accurately, communicate in their language, and not push them through a heat-illness day, and that loyalty is what fills a harvest window — but the buyer of the crop deals with the owner or packer, not you, which caps this at 10 instead of the mid-teens.

Judgment & accountability 13/20

Meaningful discretion. Calling a work stoppage before a thunderstorm, deciding whether a bruised load still meets the buyer's grade, or pulling a crew off a field within a pesticide re-entry interval are consequential calls made without waiting for a phone call up the chain; it lands at 13 rather than higher because harvest windows, contract grades, and labor budgets are set above you and constrain the range of choices.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, physical-presence, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.