← Risk register SOC 37-1012 · reviewed 2026-08-11

First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers

130,760 US workers · median $58,430/yr · Facilities

EXPOSED

The core of this job is standing on a property directing crews, inspecting cut quality and plant health, fixing a broken mower deck, and rerouting the day when rain or a client complaint blows up the schedule — none of which AI touches. What is exposed is the paperwork half: route and crew scheduling, estimating and bidding, material ordering, timesheet and safety-log entry, and customer follow-up emails are all being absorbed by landscape management software with AI scheduling. Pesticide applicator certification (legally required in every state for commercial application) plus crew supervision liability gives a real but partial shield.

10-year outlook: Headcount holds because someone must be on the property directing people and equipment, but the estimating-and-scheduling portion of the job shrinks, pushing supervisors toward more field time, more licensed chemical work, and more direct client contact.

Score — 62/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 14 + 17 + 7 + 11 + 13 = 62.

Task resistance 14/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Diagnosing why a bed is failing, walking a property to judge whether the crew cut clean or scalped the turf, and hand-pruning to a shape a client will accept are tasks that can't be specified in advance, which is what holds this at 14 rather than higher — the bidding math, route sequencing, and daily crew assignments underneath all that are already being generated by Aspire, LMN, or Jobber.

Embodiment 17/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are outdoors in heat, mud, and pollen most of the day, climbing on and off trucks, loading a trailer, backpack-spraying a slope, and troubleshooting hydraulics on a zero-turn in a client's driveway; it's 17 rather than 20 only because a meaningful share of the week is estimating, scheduling, and client calls done sitting down.

Liability shield 7/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. A commercial pesticide applicator license is legally mandatory and your name is on the application record — a misapplication that kills a neighbor's ornamentals or drifts onto a school is enforced against you personally by the state ag department — but the supervisory role itself needs no license, most states let a certified applicator cover uncertified crew under direct supervision, and hiring is by experience and driving record, which caps this at 7.

Trust premium 11/20

Some relationship component. On residential and HOA accounts you are the face the property manager calls when the irrigation zone fails or the crew wakes someone at 6 a.m., and contracts get renewed or dropped on that relationship, but the actual product is mowed turf and healthy beds — a competitor undercutting the bid by fifteen percent takes the account regardless of how well the board likes you.

Judgment & accountability 13/20

Meaningful discretion. Calling whether to pull crews off a site because the ground is too saturated to mow without rutting, deciding to eat the cost on a redo versus arguing the scope, and judging when a leaning limb over a walkway becomes a hazard you stop work for are all your calls made in minutes without a supervisor on site; it sits at 13 rather than 16 because label rates, spec sheets, and the contract scope constrain most of what you decide.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, licensure, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers SAFE · 80/100 · you already have ~78% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Reading Comprehension, Service Orientation, Social Perceptiveness

Firefighters SAFE · 79/100 · you already have ~62% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Equipment Selection, Service Orientation

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.