← Risk register SOC 35-2021 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Food Preparation Workers

893,600 US workers · median $35,320/yr · Food

EXPOSED

Washing, peeling, slicing, portioning, and assembling salads and sandwiches are manual tasks that language AI cannot touch — this job is protected by hands, not by knowledge work. The real pressure comes from purpose-built kitchen automation (automated fry stations, robotic wok and bowl lines, pre-cut and pre-portioned supplier products) plus menu simplification, which shrinks headcount per kitchen rather than replacing the worker's skill. No license, no signature, minimal customer relationship, and little discretion means there is no regulatory or trust moat to slow that squeeze.

10-year outlook: Employment holds up in independent and scratch-cooking kitchens but thins noticeably in chains as pre-cut supply chains and station robotics spread; the workers who survive are the ones handling irregular product and food-safety accountability.

US employment, 2019–2025+3.5%
863,740893,600 workers

Roughly flat across the period, with year-to-year wobble.

Median pay $24,800 → $35,320 +13.9% in real terms (nominal +42.4%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

-3.4% 902,700 → 871,800 on the projections basis

Exposed, and shrinking

Both signals point the same way: the tasks are largely automatable and the BLS projects -3.4% by 2034. This is the case where the score and the forecast agree, and it is the one worth taking seriously.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~148,000 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

CookParerCarverPeelerSlicerCatererStewardCook AideDiet AideLine CookDishwasherMeat ClerkPie CutterFood ServerLine ServerPantry CookPizza MakerSalad MakerCoffee MakerDietary AideFood HandlerKitchen CrewCoffee BrewerKitchen Clerk

Score — 41/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (17/20). Weakest point: liability shield (2/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 14 + 17 + 2 + 4 + 4 = 41. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 14/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation Deboning a chicken, trimming a case of romaine, and hand-portioning steam-table pans are irregular-object manipulations no software has solved, and the 14 rather than 18 reflects that the volume tasks — dicing onions, shredding cheese, portioning sauce — are already offloaded to supplier pre-cut bags and to buffalo choppers and Hobart slicers in-house.

Embodiment 17/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments You are on your feet the full shift moving between a 38°F walk-in and a hot line, lifting 50-lb produce cases, handling wet floors and open knives, with the 17 rather than 20 owing to the kitchen being an indoor, fixed layout rather than a fully unpredictable outdoor site.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement The only credential in most jurisdictions is a food handler card obtained from a two-hour online course, and when a health inspector writes up a temperature violation or a norovirus case is traced back, the citation lands on the establishment's permit and the certified food protection manager, not on you.

Trust premium 4/20

Anonymous artifact production Prep work happens behind the wall — the guest never learns who cut the fruit or built the sandwich, and the 4 instead of 0 credits the working relationship with the chef or kitchen manager who knows your speed and yield and would rather not retrain someone.

Judgment & accountability 4/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs The day runs off a prep list, standardized recipe cards, spec'd portion scoops, and HACCP hold temperatures with logged checks; the discretion left is calling a case of tomatoes bad or flexing prep quantities against an unexpectedly slow lunch.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works · 1 deployment report on file

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, physical-presence

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: MIT OpenCourseWare — full course materials across every department, free free · Coursera — engineering and procurement courses, auditable without paying free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — finance and accounting free · edX — supply chain and inventory management free to audit · edX — operations management and process monitoring courses free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — operations management free · Apprenticeship.gov — industrial maintenance and millwright programs paid to train

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Cooks, Restaurant EXPOSED · 57/100 · you already have ~90% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Active Learning, Equipment Selection, Management of Financial Resources, Management of Material Resources

Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners EXPOSED · 54/100 · you already have ~88% of the skill profile

Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers EXPOSED · 57/100 · you already have ~81% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Selection, Operations Monitoring, Operations Analysis, Equipment Maintenance

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 52/100, still EXPOSED.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening judgment accountability +3

    Task-mix shift: if automated lines take routine slicing and portioning, the remaining human work concentrates on receiving inspection, spoilage and temperature-abuse calls, cross-contact decisions, and HACCP corrective actions — consequential calls under ambiguity that carry the store's health-inspection score. This tier genuinely exists today but is thinly recognized in the role.

  • already happening task resistance +2

    Same two-tier shift: once fry stations, wok lines, and bowl assembly are automated, what remains is exception handling, machine cleaning and sanitation validation, and non-standard order remediation — none of which current robotic cells do. Rises only in occupations that survive the headcount cut, not for the cut positions.

  • plausible liability shield +4

    If FDA Food Code adoption in more states moves beyond one Person-in-Charge toward requiring a certified food protection manager physically present per prep shift (already law in NYC, Illinois, and Texas manager-certification rules), a named certified human becomes a staffing floor rather than a one-per-store box-tick. Allergen-specific certification mandates (post-Natasha's-Law-style bills introduced in several US states) would compound this.

  • plausible embodiment +2

    If the menu mix shifts further toward whole-ingredient, variable-input prep (whole fish butchery, irregular produce, allergen-segregated prep lines) that defeats fixed-geometry robotic cells, the unpredictable-environment share of the day rises. Watch for chains reversing pre-cut supplier reliance on cost/freshness grounds, as some grocery-adjacent kitchens have done.

The limit. There is no realistic route to a meaningful trust premium: buyers of prepped salad and sandwich components do not know or pay for who cut them, and back-of-house work is invisible at the point of sale. Note also that every lever above raises per-worker resistance while the automation and menu-simplification squeeze reduces the number of workers — the occupation's score can rise while employment falls.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 392 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 63,530 $35,670 +1%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 44,930 $39,770 +13%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 27,100 $35,410 +0%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 21,700 $30,740 -13%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 19,630 $36,090 +2%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 17,060 $36,090 +2%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 16,810 $35,100 -1%
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX 16,240 $35,020 -1%

Best paid

Kahului-Wailuku, HI 720 $46,680 +32%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 5,930 $45,580 +29%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 11,060 $43,830 +24%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $35,320. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

McDonald's

2 of 2 reported cases, with sources

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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