← Risk register SOC 53-7062 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

2,950,280 US workers · median $40,240/yr · Transportation

EXPOSED

Almost nothing here is text or screen work, so language models barely touch the job — the threat is capital, not chatbots: goods-to-person systems, autonomous mobile robots, and improving suction/multi-grip picking arms already handle high-volume sortation and palletizing in purpose-built facilities. What survives is messy: irregular loads, damaged cartons, trailer unloading, retail backrooms, construction sites, and any building not designed around robots. The job doesn't disappear — it concentrates in the un-engineered spaces while the biggest, most standardized warehouses shed headcount per unit shipped.

10-year outlook: Employment stays large through the 2030s but shrinks per package shipped, with growth surviving in construction, retail backrooms, and small distributors while mega-warehouses automate the standardized half of the work away.

Score — 39/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 13 + 18 + 1 + 3 + 4 = 39.

Task resistance 13/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. Trailer unloading of floor-loaded mixed cartons, breaking down collapsed pallets, and hand-stacking irregular freight in a 1970s dock with no clearance still beat every commercial robot, but the high-volume half of the work — case picking to a conveyor, palletizing uniform SKUs, tote induction — is already being done by machines in new-build DCs, which is what holds this at 13 instead of 17.

Embodiment 18/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. The whole shift is lifting 50-lb boxes, climbing in and out of trailers at ambient temperature or in a freezer, walking uneven yard surfaces, and reaching into spaces a fixed arm cannot see into; the only reason it isn't 20 is that a growing share of the work happens inside conditioned, engineered warehouse aisles rather than construction sites and open yards.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement. No licence, no certification, no exam — a forklift authorization under 29 CFR 1910.178(l) is employer-issued training, not a credential you carry, and when freight is damaged the carrier or the employer pays, never you.

Trust premium 3/20

Anonymous artifact production. Nobody requesting the pallet knows who moved it; the 3 reflects that a crew lead or a driver may specifically ask for the loader who blocks-and-braces a trailer well, which is a reputation inside one building, not a client relationship.

Judgment & accountability 4/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs. Calls are real but bounded — deciding stack height, whether a carton is too damaged to ship, when a load needs re-securing — and they're governed by pick lists, load diagrams, and a supervisor who is thirty feet away.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, physical-presence, unionization

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Structured problem solving partner link

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Roof Bolters, Mining EXPOSED · 61/100 · you already have ~68% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Installation, Troubleshooting, Equipment Maintenance, Repairing

Tree Trimmers and Pruners SAFE · 70/100 · you already have ~66% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Complex Problem Solving, Equipment Selection, Instructing, Operation and Control

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.