← Risk register SOC 25-1022 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Mathematical Science Teachers, Postsecondary

47,670 US workers · median $79,940/yr · Education

EXPOSED

Math is the subject where current AI is strongest: problem-set generation, worked solutions, lecture-note drafting, and even much of homework grading are already handled at usable quality, and online courseware plus AI tutors compete directly with intro calculus and college algebra sections that make up the bulk of the teaching load. What persists is live classroom presence, diagnosing why a specific student is stuck, defending grades and academic-integrity calls, and curriculum ownership — plus, for the tenure-track slice, original research and doctoral advising. Employment pressure here comes less from AI replacing the professor than from institutions using AI-assisted courseware to consolidate large service sections into fewer, larger, more adjunct-staffed offerings.

10-year outlook: Intro-level math instruction consolidates into fewer, larger AI-supported sections over the next decade, shrinking adjunct headcount while professors who own assessment integrity, upper-division courses, and student research keep stable footing.

US employment, 2019–2025-6.8%
51,15047,670 workers

Nearly all of this fall was the 2020 shock. It has been climbing back since.

Median pay $73,690 → $79,940 -13.2% in real terms (nominal +8.5%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+2.3%

Percentage only. The projection counts a different population from the 47,670 above — it includes self-employed workers, which for this occupation is most of them, so the two headcounts are not comparable.

Growing, and only partly exposed

The BLS expects +2.3% more of these jobs by 2034, and at 48/100 the work is only partly exposed — some tasks are automatable, the core of the job is not. Nothing here is in tension.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~4,400 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

LecturerProfessorInstructorMath TeacherMath ProfessorAlgebra TeacherAdjunct LecturerBiometry TeacherCalculus TeacherGeometry TeacherTopology TeacherAdjunct ProfessorCollege ProfessorAdjunct InstructorCalculus ProfessorGeometry ProfessorStatistics TeacherTopology ProfessorAssistant ProfessorAssociate ProfessorMathematics TeacherCryptography TeacherMathematics LecturerStatistics Professor

Score — 48/100 resistance

Holding it up: trust premium (14/20). Weakest point: liability shield (4/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 10 + 9 + 4 + 14 + 11 = 48. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 10/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier Generating problem sets, worked solutions, and even proof-checking is where LLMs perform best, and multi-section calculus and college algebra courses run on standardized syllabi and item banks that transfer directly to courseware — what holds this at 10 rather than 5 is the live board work, reading a room of 200 students who have gone quiet, and the office-hours diagnosis of a student who can differentiate but cannot set up a word problem.

Embodiment 9/20

Some physical or field component Chalk-and-board lecturing to a scheduled room, proctoring in-person exams, and walking rows during recitation are physical and location-bound, which is why this is not a 2 — but the environment is a controlled campus classroom and the pandemic proved most of these sections can run over Zoom, so it does not reach the teens.

Liability shield 4/20

No licence, no signature requirement No state licence gates postsecondary math instruction; the credential is a PhD or master's plus departmental hiring, and an institution can and does staff sections with adjuncts, ABD grad students, or vendor courseware without any statutory barrier — the 4 reflects accreditation faculty-qualification rules (SACSCOC, HLC) that require a credentialed human of record, not personal liability.

Trust premium 14/20

The human relationship is the product Math is the subject students arrive at already convinced they cannot do, and whether a struggling student returns after failing the first midterm turns on a specific instructor's patience; add letters of recommendation, undergraduate research supervision, and doctoral advising where the advisor's name follows the student for a career — that relationship is the product, held just under the top band because intro service sections are assigned by registrar, not chosen.

Judgment & accountability 11/20

Meaningful discretion Setting the curve, deciding whether a student who bombed the final but nailed everything else passes, and adjudicating academic-integrity referrals for Chegg or ChatGPT-copied solutions are consequential calls you defend to a dean — but rubrics, departmental common finals, and appeals procedures constrain most of it, which puts this at 11 rather than the high teens.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: trust, judgment, physical-presence

How to future-proof this job

Where to go deeper on what this job runs on: Khan Academy — mathematics, arithmetic through calculus free · Toastmasters — public speaking practice at local clubs worldwide low · Khan Academy — reading and vocabulary, all levels, free free · Coursera — active listening and communication skills free to audit · Coursera — teaching and instructional design, audit free free to audit · Purdue OWL — the standard reference for professional writing free

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — nothing clears the bar

No occupation passed every test: close enough to mathematical science teachers, postsecondary on skills and subject matter, at least 10 points more resistant, no big jump in training, no new licence, no pay cut, and not shrinking on its own. That happens for 223 of the 654 occupations here that aren't SAFE, and it is worth stating plainly rather than leaving the section off.

The usual reason is that exposure travels with the skill profile. The jobs most similar to yours tend to be exposed for the same reasons yours is, so the near neighbours don't clear the gap — and the ones that do are a different kind of work, not a transfer of what you already know. Read that as a limit of this method, not a verdict that you're stuck: it only compares whole occupations, and it cannot see specialisation, industry, or anything you'd bring that isn't in a federal skill survey.

Here is that claim on your own job rather than in the abstract. These are the three occupations closest to this one by skill and subject matter — the places the work would most naturally transfer — with what the register scores them:

Mathematicians COOKED 30/100 (-18) · 82% overlap
Statisticians EXPOSED 37/100 (-11) · 75% overlap
Economists EXPOSED 35/100 (-13) · 70% overlap

That is the whole problem in three lines. The nearest work is not meaningfully safer, so there is no move here that trades a similar skill set for a better verdict. This is not us running out of ideas — it is what the neighbourhood looks like.

What would move this occupation up is the other direction, and on this page it's the more useful one.

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 60/100, still EXPOSED.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +3

    If AI-assisted homework makes unproctored take-home assessment worthless, the graded core shifts to in-person proctored exams, oral exams, and live board work — as several math departments (e.g. moves to oral/whiteboard qualifying-style assessment in intro sequences) have already begun. That remaining tier (diagnosing individual misconceptions in real time, defending integrity findings) is what AI cannot do, so the daily task mix becomes harder even with no capability regression.

  • already happening judgment accountability +3

    If institutions formalize AI-cheating adjudication so the instructor of record must make and document the finding that goes to the honor council — and detector output is explicitly non-dispositive (the posture Turnitin's own guidance and multiple university senates have adopted) — the professor personally owns a consequential contested call under ambiguity.

  • plausible trust premium +3

    If accreditors or state authorization rules require a human faculty member of record with documented 'regular and substantive interaction' for federal aid eligibility (the existing ED distance-education RSI rule, currently under renegotiation), AI courseware cannot be the instructor of record and the human becomes the thing being purchased.

  • plausible liability shield +3

    If a faculty union contract caps section size and bars AI-only instruction of credit-bearing courses — the pattern in recent CSU/CFA and community-college bargaining over 'AI shall not replace faculty' language — a named human signature on grades becomes contractually mandatory rather than customary.

The limit. Liability here is institutional and accreditation-based, never personal malpractice, so the shield has a low ceiling. The dominant threat is section consolidation and adjunctification, which none of these levers reverse — they protect the role's content, not the headcount.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 148 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 3,600 $98,130 +23%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 1,810 $68,050 -15%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 1,400 $131,070 +64%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 1,360 $77,230 -3%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 1,320 $86,510 +8%
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX 860 $80,570 +1%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 830 $82,390 +3%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 790 $81,880 +2%

Best paid

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 340 $150,550 +88%
Ann Arbor, MI 310 $137,720 +72%
Fresno, CA 100 $135,890 +70%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $79,940. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 48. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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