← Risk register SOC 53-5011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Sailors and Marine Oilers

31,670 US workers · median $51,520/yr · Transportation

EXPOSED

The core of this job — standing lookout watch, handling mooring lines, chipping and painting steel, lubricating and monitoring engine-room machinery, securing cargo and rigging gear — happens with hands on wet, moving equipment in weather, which language models cannot touch. The real threat is not chatbots but crew-size reduction: sensor-based watchkeeping, condition-monitoring on engines, and automated engine-room alarms let owners sail with fewer deckhands and oilers per hull, and reduced-manning and autonomous-vessel pilots are already underway. Merchant Mariner Credential and TWIC requirements plus strong maritime unions slow the headcount squeeze more than any AI limitation does.

10-year outlook: Vessels will still need bodies aboard in 2035, but expect fewer of them per hull — the sailors who keep berths will be the ones holding licenses, welding tickets, and tankerman endorsements rather than watch-and-paint ratings.

Score — 60/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 16 + 19 + 11 + 5 + 9 = 60.

Task resistance 16/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Heaving mooring lines onto bollards, chipping rust and painting a rolling deck, splicing wire rope, standing bow lookout in fog, and hand-lubing a running generator are physical acts on unpredictable steel and water — none of them decompose into text or API calls, which is why this sits at 16 rather than mid-band; the points off reflect that logbook entries, watch reporting, and sensor-fed rounds are already partly displaced by automated alarms and condition monitoring.

Embodiment 19/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You work on a pitching deck in spray and heat, in confined engine spaces at 40°C, handling lines under tension and hatches that crush — an environment that is not merely physical but actively hostile and never the same twice, which is what separates 19 from a warehouse job at 12.

Liability shield 11/20

Licensed human required and personally liable. A Merchant Mariner Credential with STCW Basic Training and a TWIC is legally mandatory to walk the gangway, and the Coast Guard can suspend or revoke that document under 46 CFR Part 5 for your own negligence — but you sign no vessel documents and the master and licensed engineer carry the operational liability, so this lands at 11 rather than in the high teens.

Trust premium 5/20

Anonymous artifact production. No charterer or shipper picks a vessel because of which AB or oiler is aboard; the crewing agent or union hall fills the billet interchangeably by rating and endorsement, and the only relationship that carries value is your standing with the bosun and the mate who requests you back — worth a few points, not a business.

Judgment & accountability 9/20

Meaningful discretion. Most of the day runs on standing orders, watch routines, PMS cards and the bosun's work list, but you make live calls that nobody can second-guess in time: whether that contact on the bow is closing, whether a mooring line is about to part, whether a bearing temperature or unusual noise warrants calling the engineer — real discretion with a short fuse, though the consequential decisions escalate to the bridge, which holds it at 9.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, licensure, unionization

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.