← Risk register SOC 15-1253 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers

186,740 US workers · median $104,300/yr · Tech

COOKED

The modal QA analyst writes test cases from requirements, builds and maintains Selenium/Cypress/Playwright scripts, runs regression suites, triages failures, and files structured bug reports — all text-and-screen work that coding models now do at usable quality and at volume. What resists is the thin senior tier: exploratory testing that finds the bug nobody specified, owning release go/no-go, designing test strategy across flaky distributed systems, and performance/security testing on real devices and hardware. There is no license, no signature requirement, and buyers do not pay for a relationship with a tester, so nothing outside the work itself slows displacement.

10-year outlook: Headcount contracts sharply over the next decade as automation generation and self-healing suites absorb script work, leaving a smaller cohort of quality architects and release owners embedded in engineering teams.

US employment, 2021–2025-1.8%
190,120186,740 workers

Roughly flat across the period, with year-to-year wobble.

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+10% 201,700 → 221,900 on the projections basis

Exposed, but growing

AI can already do a lot of these tasks, and the BLS still expects +10% more of these jobs by 2034. Demand for the output is growing faster than the work is being automated away — the mechanism BLS gives for software developers, and the combination people most often misread as an error.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~14,000 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

Beta TesterGame TesterData ModelerTest EngineerSystems TesterMalware AnalystQuality AnalystServer EngineerSoftware TesterSystems AnalystQuality EngineerAutomation TesterBug Bounty HunterPerformance TesterSoftware InstallerSolution ArchitectTechnology AnalystUsability EngineerApplication AnalystApplications TesterComputer ConsultantSystems CoordinatorValidation EngineerAutomation Specialist

Score — 30/100 resistance

Holding it up: judgment & accountability (10/20). Weakest point: liability shield (2/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 9 + 4 + 2 + 5 + 10 = 30. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 9/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier Writing test cases from a Jira ticket, generating Playwright selectors, and triaging a red CI build are exactly the text-in/text-out loops LLMs handle now, which caps this at 9 rather than mid-teens; the 9 instead of 4 comes from work that still needs a human in the loop — reproducing a heisenbug that only appears on a specific Android build, deciding which of 300 failing assertions are real versus a selector drift after a UI refactor, and exploratory sessions where the oracle is your own judgment about what the product should do, not a written requirement.

Embodiment 4/20

Fully desk- and screen-based A 4 reflects that the job is a laptop, an IDE, and a browser for most sprints, with the physical component limited to the device lab — plugging a phone into a USB hub for real-device testing, checking a kiosk or POS terminal build, or verifying a hardware peripheral integration — none of which happens in an uncontrolled environment or on most teams' sprints.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement There is no state license, no ISTQB requirement in any statute, and no signature on a release; when a defect reaches production the postmortem lands on engineering management and the release owner, and QA's sign-off is an internal Jira transition with no legal weight, which is why this sits at 2 and not 5.

Trust premium 5/20

Anonymous artifact production Bugs are consumed as tickets by developers who mostly never talk to the filer, and no customer selects a vendor because of who tests it — the 5 rather than 0 is the internal capital a long-tenured tester builds from knowing which subsystems historically break and which PM will fight a severity rating, which is real but transfers to nobody outside the team.

Judgment & accountability 10/20

Meaningful discretion Most days are bounded by an acceptance criteria list and a defined severity/priority matrix, which holds this under the discretion band; the 10 comes from calls that genuinely are yours — assigning severity on an ambiguous edge case, deciding a flaky test is masking a race condition rather than muting it, and recommending go/no-go into a release meeting where you can be overruled and usually are.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works · 1 deployment report on file

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: judgment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: CS50x, Harvard — how software is actually built free · Coursera — decision making under uncertainty free to audit · Coursera — negotiation courses, audit free free to audit · Apprenticeship.gov — industrial maintenance and millwright programs paid to train · Apprenticeship.gov — paid, employer-sponsored trade apprenticeships, searchable by trade and ZIP paid to train · Coursera — engineering and procurement courses, auditable without paying free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — full course materials across every department, free free · edX — supply chain and inventory management free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Software Developers EXPOSED · 41/100 · you already have ~82% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Technology Design, Judgment and Decision Making, Negotiation

Computer Hardware Engineers EXPOSED · 40/100 · you already have ~70% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Repairing, Equipment Selection, Active Learning

Network and Computer Systems Administrators EXPOSED · 40/100 · you already have ~64% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Repairing, Management of Material Resources, Equipment Selection

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 46/100 — EXPOSED.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +4

    Task-mix shift: once script authoring and regression triage are model-generated, the surviving role is exploratory/adversarial testing, oracle design for nondeterministic distributed systems, and validating AI-generated tests against real requirements. Watchable signal: job postings retitled 'test architect' or 'quality engineer' with script-maintenance duties dropped and 'AI test review' added. Raises the residual, but shrinks headcount.

  • plausible liability shield +5

    Safety-critical software regimes naming a human verification role: FDA cybersecurity/premarket software guidance and IEC 62304, DO-178C DAL-A independent verification, and EU AI Act Art. 17 quality-management/post-market monitoring for high-risk systems already require documented, traceable verification with named responsible personnel. If auditors or notified bodies begin rejecting purely model-generated verification evidence and require a named human to attest test adequacy, a signature-bearing tier appears in medical, avionics, automotive (ISO 26262) and now AI-product QA.

  • plausible judgment accountability +4

    Formal release-gate ownership: SRE/change-management policy or SOX-style ITGC audit requiring a named non-developer to sign release go/no-go and own the rollback decision, distinct from the engineer who wrote the code. Watchable signal: change-advisory-board records naming QA as approver, or FDA/notified-body audit findings citing lack of independent release sign-off.

  • plausible embodiment +3

    Physical device-lab and hardware-in-the-loop testing — real handsets, wearables, medical devices, vehicle HIL rigs, accessibility testing with screen readers and assistive hardware — cannot be simulated for certification. If certification bodies (e.g., automotive HIL requirements, FDA device usability testing under IEC 62366) continue to require on-hardware evidence, the physical share of the surviving role rises.

The limit. Even with all of these, the ceiling is low and narrow: the liability and embodiment routes exist only in safety-critical verticals (medical, avionics, automotive, defense) that employ a small fraction of the 186,740. For web/SaaS/enterprise-app QA — the bulk of the occupation — there is no plausible license, no signature requirement, and no route to a trust premium: buyers of software never see or ask about the tester. The lever set describes survival of a senior tier, not of the occupation's volume.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 218 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 11,460 $130,540 +25%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 8,840 $103,210 -1%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 8,460 $126,350 +21%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 7,200 $122,210 +17%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 6,650 $129,690 +24%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 6,480 $166,530 +60%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 6,050 $122,210 +17%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 5,880 $134,630 +29%

Best paid

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 6,480 $166,530 +60%
Lexington Park, MD 400 $147,520 +41%
Boulder, CO 500 $136,410 +31%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $104,300. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

Electronic Arts

1 of 1 reported case, with sources

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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