← Risk register SOC 25-3031 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Substitute Teachers, Short-Term

524,770 US workers · median $41,670/yr · Education

EXPOSED

The core job is being a responsible adult body in a room with 25 minors: taking attendance, keeping order, walking students to the nurse, following a lesson plan someone else wrote. None of that is text-on-a-screen work, and no robot supervises a middle-school hallway, so AI barely touches the day. The exposure is different in kind — the plan-writing and worksheet-generating layer is already AI'd, most states require only a permit rather than a full license, and districts can substitute cheaper coverage models (larger combined rooms, paraprofessional pooling, asynchronous district-provided video lessons) that compress how many sub-days exist.

10-year outlook: Demand for adult supervision in schools does not disappear by 2035, but pay stays low, AI absorbs the planning and grading portion of the day, and the reliable money migrates to credentialed long-term and special-education coverage.

Score — 53/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 14 + 16 + 7 + 9 + 7 = 53.

Task resistance 14/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Delivering someone else's lesson to a room of 25 seventh-graders, breaking up a shoving match, and getting signatures on a fire-drill roster are tasks no model performs; the 14 rather than 18 reflects that the paper layer of the day — worksheet generation, sub notes, fill-in busywork, grading the packet you handed out — is already being produced by AI before you walk in.

Embodiment 16/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are physically in the building for the full bell schedule: hallway and cafeteria duty, walking a nosebleed to the health office, standing between two kids, unlocking a classroom in a school you've never entered — 16 not 20 only because it's a controlled indoor site rather than a rooftop or a rig floor.

Liability shield 7/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. Most states issue substitutes an emergency permit or 30-day authorization on a bachelor's degree or fewer credits, not a teaching license, and the principal or teacher of record owns instructional accountability — the 7 comes from the fingerprint/background clearance and mandatory-reporter duty under state child-abuse statutes, which are real personal obligations you cannot delegate.

Trust premium 9/20

Some relationship component. The assignment is often a same-morning phone call to a name on a district list, and students know you're temporary; the 9 rather than 3 reflects that building secretaries and principals request specific subs by name and steady requesters get the calls, so your reputation inside two or three schools does determine whether you work.

Judgment & accountability 7/20

Meaningful discretion. You mostly execute a plan left on the desk and follow the district discipline flowchart, but you decide alone whether a student leaves the room, whether behavior gets written up, and whether something a kid says triggers a report — genuine calls, made without knowing the child's history, which is what keeps it at 7 rather than in the low teens.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, physical-presence

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Systems analysis & design partner link

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Childcare Workers SAFE · 71/100 · you already have ~75% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Quality Control Analysis, Systems Evaluation, Troubleshooting, Service Orientation

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education SAFE · 73/100 · you already have ~73% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Coordination, Learning Strategies, Management of Material Resources, Quality Control Analysis

Special Education Teachers, Preschool SAFE · 82/100 · you already have ~71% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Systems Evaluation, Systems Analysis, Judgment and Decision Making, Learning Strategies

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.