← Risk register SOC 41-9041 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Telemarketers

58,430 US workers · median $35,450/yr · Sales

COOKED

The job is reading a script over the phone, handling a short list of predictable objections, and logging the outcome in a CRM — all three are now handled by conversational voice AI at lower cost and unlimited volume. Employment has already fallen sharply from its 2000s peak as predictive dialers and IVR absorbed the work, and current voice models close the remaining gap on tone and objection handling. There is no license, no physical presence, and buyers on the other end of the line are not paying for the relationship.

10-year outlook: Expect continued steep decline over the next decade, with the residual jobs concentrated in complex B2B selling, campaign design, and oversight of automated calling systems.

US employment, 2019–2025-56.7%
134,80058,430 workers

Most of this decline happened after 2021 — it is not the pandemic dip.

Median pay $26,290 → $35,450 +7.9% in real terms (nominal +34.8%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

-22.1%

Percentage only. The projection counts a different population from the 58,430 above — it includes self-employed workers, which for this occupation is most of them, so the two headcounts are not comparable.

Exposed, and shrinking

Both signals point the same way: the tasks are largely automatable and the BLS projects -22.1% by 2034. This is the case where the score and the forecast agree, and it is the one worth taking seriously.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~6,500 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

SolicitorCall AgentTelemarketerDonation WorkerTelesales AgentScheduling AgentCall Center AgentDirect Sales AgentMarketing ProcessorTelephone SolicitorCall Center OperatorContact Center AgentInbound TelemarketerOutbound Sales AgentTelesales SpecialistOutbound TelemarketerTelephone Sales AgentCall Center Sales AgentCall Center TelemarketerInbound Call Center AgentTelephone Sales Representative (TSR)Telephone Service Representative (TSR)Telesales Representative (Telesales Rep)Call Center Representative (Call Center Rep)

Score — 9/100 resistance

Holding it up: trust premium (3/20). Weakest point: liability shield (1/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 = 9. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 2/20

Core tasks are already automatable The dialer already picks the number, the screen already supplies the pitch and the rebuttal tree, and the only human contribution left is producing the audio — which is precisely what synthetic voice with sub-second latency now does, so this sits at 2 rather than 7 because there is no off-script residue like site inspection or credit assessment to fall back on.

Embodiment 1/20

Fully desk- and screen-based You sit in a headset at a workstation; nothing in the job requires touching, carrying, or going anywhere, and the 1 rather than 0 is only the fact that a body currently occupies a seat in a call center for shift-supervision purposes.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement No state licences telemarketers; TCPA, the Do Not Call Registry, and state telemarketing registration bind the seller and the calling firm, not the individual on the phone, so a compliance violation costs the company statutory damages and costs you the shift, not a credential.

Trust premium 3/20

Anonymous artifact production Nobody on the other end knows your name before you say it, calls are placed from purchased lists to strangers, and the 3 rather than 0 acknowledges only that outbound renewal and warm-lead lists occasionally reach someone who bought before — a list attribute, not a relationship you built.

Judgment & accountability 2/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs Your discretion runs to picking rebuttal 3 instead of rebuttal 4 and deciding when to release the call; pricing, offer terms, credit approval, and the disclosure language are all locked upstream, which is why this is 2 and not the 8 a commissioned outside rep would get for negotiating terms.

This occupation has already been through one. Headcount fell 69.2% between 2017 and 2025 — 189,670 to 58,430 — while the median wage held roughly flat in real terms (+ 11.1% after inflation). A job being commoditised usually loses pay along with headcount. One that shrinks by half while pay holds is leaving a specialist core behind, and the score above was assigned from the occupation title without sight of that history — so it may be describing the job this used to be rather than the people still doing it. Why this is a known limit.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Khan Academy — mathematics, arithmetic through calculus free · Learning How to Learn — the most-taken course on Coursera, and free free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — full course materials across every department, free free · OSHA Outreach Training — the 10- and 30-hour cards most employers ask for low · Coursera — project coordination and cross-team delivery free to audit · edX — performance measurement and evaluation free to audit · Coursera — communication and interpersonal skills free to audit · Coursera — quality control and inspection courses, auditable free free to audit · edX — operations management and process monitoring courses free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — circuits, systems and diagnostic method, free and ungated free

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Retail Salespersons EXPOSED · 36/100 · you already have ~74% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Mathematics, Learning Strategies, Active Learning, Operation and Control

Concierges EXPOSED · 41/100 · you already have ~71% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Coordination, Active Learning, Monitoring, Social Perceptiveness

Waiters and Waitresses EXPOSED · 49/100 · you already have ~70% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Quality Control Analysis, Monitoring, Operations Monitoring, Troubleshooting

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 23/100, still COOKED.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening liability shield +5

    The FCC's Feb 2024 declaratory ruling already makes AI-generated voices 'artificial or prerecorded' under the TCPA, requiring prior express written consent; the pending AI-disclosure NPRM (CG Docket 23-362) would add mandatory 'this is an AI voice' disclosure at call start. If that finalizes AND states layer on sector rules — e.g. an insurance or securities regulator requiring that any solicitation resulting in an application be conducted by a registered/licensed human (FINRA Rule 2210-style supervision of 'retail communications'), the compliant channel for regulated products becomes a named human on a recorded line. Watch state insurance departments and the NAIC AI model bulletin adoption.

  • plausible task resistance +4

    Two-tier split is real: the outbound-cold tier is gone, the remaining tier is complex B2B qualification, appointment-setting into six-figure deals, and Medicare Advantage / final-expense sales where the caller must navigate eligibility facts the caller misstates. If AI-disclosure requirements make disclosed-AI calls answer-rate-collapse (already visible in early carrier spam-labeling data), the survivor headcount is entirely judgment-tier and the measured score of the remaining job rises even as employment falls.

  • plausible judgment accountability +3

    If CMS's third-party marketing organization rules (already tightened for Medicare Advantage in the 2024/2025 rules, with recorded-call retention and scope-of-appointment requirements) extend to naming an accountable individual agent for each enrollment, the caller personally owns a consequential eligibility call under ambiguity rather than reading a script.

  • plausible trust premium +2

    Carrier-level authentication (STIR/SHAKEN attestation plus branded caller ID) makes 'verified human agent at a named firm' a purchasable signal; some outbound health-plan and financial firms already market human-only contact as a compliance and brand-safety feature after AI-voice fraud incidents. This is a thin, buyer-side (not consumer-side) premium — the person answering still does not want the call.

The limit. Even with every lever, this tops out around 25-30 and only for the regulated-product slice (Medicare, insurance, securities); those workers are increasingly classified as insurance agents (41-3021) rather than telemarketers, so the SOC code itself hollows out. Generic B2C outbound has no route at all — no license exists to create, and no consumer has ever preferred the call.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 79 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 2,730 $35,870 +1%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2,240 $33,490 -6%
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV 1,830 $32,150 -9%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 1,550 $42,450 +20%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 1,220 $41,400 +17%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 1,210 $40,040 +13%
St. Louis, MO-IL 1,210 $31,480 -11%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 1,170 $33,900 -4%

Best paid

Springfield, IL 30 $50,390 +42%
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 270 $49,700 +40%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 420 $49,240 +39%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $35,450. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 9. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

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