← Risk register SOC 51-3091 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders

20,370 US workers · median $44,810/yr · Production

COOKED

The core loop — watching temperature and moisture gauges, adjusting roast or bake time, recording batch data, pulling samples — is exactly what process-control software and inline sensors already do better and continuously. What holds the job in place is physical: loading and unloading ovens and dryers, clearing jams, cleaning and changing over equipment, and catching a burnt or off-color batch by smell and sight on the plant floor. There is no license, no signature, and the buyer of coffee or crackers never meets you, so the only real moat is that a plant would need capital to fully automate handling, not intelligence.

10-year outlook: Headcount keeps sliding as new lines ship with closed-loop control and fewer tenders per oven; the survivors are the ones who also maintain the machine or own the food-safety paperwork.

Score — 30/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 7 + 13 + 2 + 3 + 5 = 30.

Task resistance 7/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. Setting roast profiles, watching drum temperature and bean color, logging batch weights and times, and pulling cupping samples are all already run by PLC recipe control and inline NIR moisture sensors in modern plants — a 7 rather than a 3 because the manual pieces (rake-out, screen cleaning, changeover between product runs) still need a person on the floor, and rather than a 12 because none of the decision-making part of the loop is beyond existing software.

Embodiment 13/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are inside a hot, dusty production space handling 50-pound totes and hoppers, climbing on dryer decks, clearing chaff and product jams, and hosing down equipment between runs — a 13 because it is genuinely hands-on and non-repeatable in position, but not higher because the plant floor is a fixed, engineered environment rather than the unpredictable outdoor or field conditions that push scores toward 18.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement. No state license, no certification exam, no operator signature attaches to a batch; food-safety exposure rests with the plant's HACCP plan and the QA/PCQI who signs it, and a 2 rather than 0 only reflects the employer-mandated allergen and GMP training you sit through.

Trust premium 3/20

Anonymous artifact production. The end buyer of the coffee, nuts, or crackers has no idea a person tended the roaster; your only relationship value is that your foreman knows which line you can run without scorching, which is a 3 — internal familiarity, not a product anyone pays for.

Judgment & accountability 5/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs. Calls are bounded by the recipe card and spec sheet — hold this temperature band, this moisture percentage, reject out-of-color batches — and a 5 reflects the real but narrow discretion to stop a run or dump a burnt lot before QA sees it, with a supervisor deciding anything past that.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~75% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Repairing, Equipment Maintenance, Troubleshooting, Equipment Selection

Logging Equipment Operators EXPOSED · 53/100 · you already have ~75% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Mathematics, Operation and Control, Repairing

Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors EXPOSED · 55/100 · you already have ~71% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.