← Risk register SOC 53-7041 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Hoist and Winch Operators

2,600 US workers · median $56,450/yr · Transportation

EXPOSED

The work is physical and site-based — rigging loads, reading signals from a spotter, feeling a drum load up, inspecting cable and brakes on a mine shaft hoist or logging yarder — and language models do none of that. The exposure is not chatbots but automation of the machine itself: programmable logic control, automated shaft hoists in modern mines, and remote/teleoperated winches already displace the operator's seat, and the occupation is small (~2,600) and shrinking. No license carries the job the way a crane operator's NCCCO card does, and nobody hires you for the relationship.

10-year outlook: Headcount keeps drifting down as automated and remotely operated hoists take the routine cycles; the operators left will be the ones who also rig, inspect, and hold crane credentials.

Score — 47/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 13 + 16 + 5 + 3 + 10 = 47.

Task resistance 13/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. At 13 the split is real: repeat-cycle hoisting on a fixed shaft or a bin-feed drum is already run by PLC and automated skip controls in modern mines, but a logging yarder pulling turns off broken ground, or a hoist landing an irregular load in a congested shaft bottom, still needs someone watching the line, adjusting speed by feel, and reacting to a hang-up — which is why it sits above the automatable band rather than at 16 like true field-judgment machine work.

Embodiment 16/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. 16 reflects that the job is a shaft collar, a landing, or a hillside cable setting — you hook and unhook loads, walk the drum to inspect wire rope for broken wires and kinks, grease sheaves, work in dust, weather, and noise, and clear fouled lines by hand — and only the sit-in-the-house control portion is enclosed, keeping it short of the 19-20 of fully unstructured field work.

Liability shield 5/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. 5 is right because MSHA hoistman qualification (30 CFR Part 49/57 requirements for shaft hoisting) and employer-specific certification exist and matter in mines, but there is no portable, individually-held license like the NCCCO crane card — you are qualified by the operator on the site, and the mine or logging contractor carries the exposure, not you personally.

Trust premium 3/20

Anonymous artifact production. 3 because the yarder engineer or hoistman is dispatched by the shift boss to whichever machine needs running; the crew below wants the load landed the same way regardless of who is in the seat, and no customer ever asks for you by name.

Judgment & accountability 10/20

Meaningful discretion. 10 covers the calls you actually own — whether to lift when the signal is unclear, when a rope has enough broken wires to pull it out of service, backing off a hang-up before you snap a line — but hoisting procedures, signal codes, and load limits are written down and posted, so you are exercising discretion inside a documented envelope, not setting the envelope.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 45/100 — EXPOSED, agreeing with the verdict above.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, physical-presence, unionization

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Crane and Tower Operators SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~81% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Installation, Operation and Control

Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators EXPOSED · 64/100 · you already have ~81% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Technology Design, Operation and Control, Equipment Maintenance

Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~80% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Technology Design

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.