← Risk register SOC 51-4041 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Machinists

287,050 US workers · median $58,750/yr · Production

EXPOSED

The core of the job — setting up machines, dialing in fixtures and workholding, changing tools, hearing a bad cut, deburring, and measuring parts with mics and CMMs — is hands-on work in a shop where every job differs, and today's robotics can't touch most of it. What AI does erode is the programming and planning layer: G-code generation, CAM toolpath selection, feeds-and-speeds lookup, and blueprint-to-setup-sheet translation are increasingly automated, and high-volume run-tending has been shrinking for decades. The modal machinist in a job shop or small-lot manufacturer keeps working; the pure production operator and the programmer-only role are the squeezed tiers.

10-year outlook: Machinist headcount keeps drifting down as programming and run-tending consolidate, but skilled setup and inspection people in low-volume, high-tolerance shops stay in short supply and get paid better for it.

Score — 52/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 14 + 17 + 3 + 7 + 11 = 52.

Task resistance 14/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Indicating a casting true within .0005 on a four-jaw, shimming a soft-jaw to hold a thin-wall part without crushing it, and re-cutting a boring bar's approach after chatter shows up are all decisions made by touch and sound at the machine, which is why this sits at 14 rather than 18 — the CAM programming, tool-library selection, and setup-sheet paperwork that used to eat hours of your shift are the parts genuinely being handed to software.

Embodiment 17/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are inside a machine envelope with a dial indicator, hauling 60-lb vises and chucks, dealing with hot chips, flood coolant on the floor, and tramming a head by feel — a 17 rather than 20 because the shop floor is at least a fixed, lit, indoor space, not a trench or a roofline.

Liability shield 3/20

No licence, no signature requirement. No state licence gates running a Bridgeport or a Haas; NIMS credentials and a journeyman card help you get hired and paid, but if a part fails in the field the liability runs to the shop's ISO/AS9100 quality system and the engineer who signed the print, not to you.

Trust premium 7/20

Some relationship component. The machinist a shop owner calls at 6am for a hot job, or the one an engineer walks out to the floor to ask "can we actually hold this tolerance," has real standing — but the part ships in a box with an inspection report and the customer never learns your name, which caps this at 7.

Judgment & accountability 11/20

Meaningful discretion. You decide whether an out-of-tolerance feature gets scrapped, reworked, or written up for deviation, when to stop a run because tool wear is trending, and how to interpret a print that GD&Ts a datum scheme the fixture can't reach — real calls with money attached, held to 11 because engineering owns the design intent and QC owns the final accept/reject.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Boilermakers SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~83% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operations Monitoring, Operations Analysis, Learning Strategies, Operation and Control

Industrial Machinery Mechanics SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~83% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Repairing, Troubleshooting, Operations Monitoring

Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~82% of the skill profile

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.