← Risk register SOC 51-7031 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Model Makers, Wood

280 US workers · median $56,550/yr · Production

EXPOSED

The core of this job — laying out, cutting, shaping, and hand-fitting wood patterns, mockups, and prototypes from drawings — is manual craft that language models cannot touch, and shop work with bandsaws, lathes, chisels, and glue-ups resists robotics. The real pressure is not chat AI but the upstream shift: CAD/CAM, CNC routing, and 3D printing already absorb the drawing interpretation, layout math, and roughing that used to be billable skilled hours, and this occupation is already down to roughly 280 workers nationally. No license protects the trade, and clients buy an accurate physical object rather than a relationship with its maker.

10-year outlook: The trade persists in foundry, architectural, and prototype niches, but employment stays tiny and keeps eroding as CNC and additive manufacturing swallow the roughing work — the survivors are the ones who run the machines and still finish by hand.

Score — 48/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 14 + 16 + 1 + 8 + 9 = 48.

Task resistance 14/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Reading a designer's drawing and then hand-fitting a curved hull mockup or furniture prototype — planing to a fair line, scarfing joints, sanding to a feel rather than a dimension — is work no model can do, but the 14 rather than 18 reflects that CNC routing and 3D printing already take the roughing, nesting, and layout arithmetic that used to fill the first days of a job.

Embodiment 16/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You spend the shift standing at a bandsaw, lathe, and bench, wrestling stock that moves with humidity, chasing grain direction and tearout, working around clamps and dust — a 16 rather than 19 only because it's your own shop with fixed machines, not a bridge deck or a crawlspace.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement. There is no state license, no journeyman card, no stamp required to make a wooden pattern or mockup; a buyer can hand the same drawing to any shop with a router and no statute stops them, which is what puts this at 1.

Trust premium 8/20

Some relationship component. Repeat clients — a foundry, a boatbuilder, an industrial design studio — come back to a maker who has learned their tolerances and drawing conventions, but the deliverable is a physical part that either checks out on the surface plate or doesn't, so the relationship earns you the callback, not the price.

Judgment & accountability 9/20

Meaningful discretion. You decide shrink allowance, draft angles, parting lines, and where to build up versus carve away when the drawing is ambiguous, and a bad call scraps expensive stock or a casting downstream — but the designer owns the design intent and signs off, keeping this in the discretion band rather than the high-stakes one.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Brickmasons and Blockmasons SAFE · 68/100 · you already have ~81% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Selection, Management of Financial Resources, Mathematics, Negotiation

Terrazzo Workers and Finishers SAFE · 68/100 · you already have ~79% of the skill profile

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers SAFE · 71/100 · you already have ~78% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Installation

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.