← Risk register SOC 51-7032 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Patternmakers, Wood

220 US workers · median $49,630/yr · Production

EXPOSED

Building wooden foundry patterns and core boxes — laying out shrinkage and draft allowances, cutting, gluing, sanding, and fitting parts until the pattern pulls clean from sand — is hands-on bench work that language models cannot touch. The real pressure is not chatbots but CAD/CAM, CNC routing, and 3D-printed sand molds, which have already absorbed the layout math and much of the shaping, and have shrunk the occupation to roughly 220 US workers. No license protects the work, and the customer buys a pattern, not a relationship.

10-year outlook: The craft skill stays hard to replace but the market keeps contracting as digital modeling and printed sand molds take more jobs; expect a few hundred highly skilled workers concentrated in repair, prototype, and hybrid digital-manual work.

Score — 44/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 12 + 16 + 1 + 6 + 9 = 44.

Task resistance 12/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. At 12 the layout arithmetic — shrink rule scaling, draft angles, parting-line placement, core print sizing — is already solved by CAD and cut by a 3-axis router, but hand-fitting loose pieces, filleting with wax or leather, sealing and finishing until the pattern draws clean from green sand, and repairing worn production patterns still keep a body at the bench, which is why this sits mixed rather than down at 5.

Embodiment 16/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. 16 reflects a shop floor: table saw, band saw, lathe, shaper and belt sander, wood dust and lacquer fumes, clamping up glue joints on stock that moves with humidity, then carrying the pattern to the foundry to trial-pull it in sand and shim where it drags — none of it done sitting down.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement. 1 is right because nothing but a shop hire stands between you and the work: no state license, no journeyman card required, no stamp on the pattern, and if a casting comes out undersized the foundry eats the scrap and reorders the pattern.

Trust premium 6/20

Some relationship component. 6 recognises that a foundry that has used you for twenty years knows you understand its sand, its ram density and its shrink habits and will call you rather than send the print to a CNC shop, but the purchase order is still for a pattern to a drawing, and a cheaper accurate pattern wins the next job.

Judgment & accountability 9/20

Meaningful discretion. 9 covers the calls that are genuinely yours — where to split the pattern, how much draft a deep pocket needs, whether a feature comes as a loose piece or a core, how much extra machining stock to leave on a critical face — decided from foundry practice rather than a spec sheet, with the ceiling being that the pattern is proved or rejected at the first pour, not years later on someone's safety.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Brickmasons and Blockmasons SAFE · 68/100 · you already have ~78% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Coordination, Persuasion, Negotiation

Sheet Metal Workers SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~77% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Installation, Instructing, Repairing, Coordination

Pile Driver Operators EXPOSED · 65/100 · you already have ~72% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operation and Control, Operations Monitoring, Troubleshooting, Equipment Maintenance

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.