← Risk register SOC 51-6093 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Upholsterers

20,140 US workers · median $46,340/yr · Production

EXPOSED

Stripping old covers, retying springs, cutting and stretching fabric over irregular frames, and blind-stitching by feel are manual tasks that current robotics cannot touch — the material is floppy, the frames are non-standard, and every antique sofa is a one-off. What AI does erode is the surrounding business layer: quoting, fabric-yardage estimating, pattern layout, sketching design options for clients, and marketing. There is no license and no liability shield here, so the occupation's real long-run pressure comes from cheap replacement furniture and offshore production rather than from software.

10-year outlook: The hands-on work stays human through 2035, but employment tracks the repair-versus-replace economics of furniture, so the survivors will be high-end restoration and specialty niches rather than general reupholstery shops.

Score — 54/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 17 + 17 + 1 + 10 + 9 = 54.

Task resistance 17/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Pulling a hundred rusted tacks out of a horsehair-stuffed Victorian frame, eight-way hand-tying coil springs, and easing a welted cover over a curved arm so the seam lands straight are all done by feel on parts that never repeat — a 17 rather than 20 because the estimating, yardage math, and cut-plan layout that used to eat your mornings are now software.

Embodiment 17/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You work on the customer's furniture in the customer's dimensions — kneeling on a shop floor with a pneumatic stapler, hauling a sleeper sofa off a truck, doing on-site work in restaurants and boats and van interiors — so 17 reflects unmapped physical space, held back from 19 only because most of the day happens in your own shop rather than someone else's roofline or trench.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement. No state licenses upholsterers; the only regulatory hook is flammability labeling and used-bedding sterilization tagging in some states, which attaches to the shop, not to your name, so nothing legally requires that a person perform this work.

Trust premium 10/20

Some relationship component. Reupholstering a client's grandmother's chair is repeat-and-referral work where they hand you an heirloom and trust your fabric advice, but the job is judged on the finished piece — a 10, not 15, because a customer who likes the price will use a shop they've never met.

Judgment & accountability 9/20

Meaningful discretion. You decide whether a frame is worth re-gluing or is scrap, how much yardage a 27-inch repeat really needs, and whether to rebuild the deck or patch it — real calls with real money on them, but a wrong one costs a redo and some fabric, not anyone's safety, which caps it at 9.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, trust

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Systems analysis & design partner link

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Stonemasons SAFE · 69/100 · you already have ~72% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Management of Personnel Resources, Mathematics, Systems Analysis

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.