COOKED
Scanning items, tendering payment, applying coupons, and issuing receipts are already displaced at scale by self-checkout, scan-and-go apps, and computer-vision checkout — the automation here is kiosks and POS software, not frontier AI, and it has been rolling for a decade. What keeps cashier jobs alive is the physical store floor: bagging awkwardly, weighing produce, clearing register errors, checking IDs, deterring theft, and helping shoppers who won't or can't use a machine. That residual is real but shrinking, and it is increasingly bundled into a broader 'front-end associate' role covering self-checkout supervision, returns, and stocking.
Part 2020 shock, part continued decline in the years since.
Median pay $23,650 → $32,880 +11.2% in real terms
This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.
So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.
BLS projection, 2024–2034
-9.9% 3,157,200 → 2,843,600 on the projections basis
Exposed, and shrinking
Both signals point the same way: the tasks are largely automatable and the BLS projects -9.9% by 2034. This is the case where the score and the forecast agree, and it is the one worth taking seriously.
Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.
~542,600 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.
TellerCashierCheckerCollectorCash PersonDay CashierSales ClerkStore ClerkTube TellerCage CashierCash CheckerCashier HostMutuel ClerkTicket ClerkAuction ClerkChange PersonCheck CashierClerk CashierClerk CheckerFloor CashierGrocery ClerkMoney CounterSales CashierStore Cashier
Holding it up: embodiment . Weakest point: liability shield .
Core tasks are already automatable Barcode scanning, cash tendering, card auth, coupon validation and receipt printing are already fully executed by self-checkout lanes and scan-and-go apps in tens of thousands of stores, leaving only ID checks, produce lookups and override keys as tasks a machine can't yet close — which is why this sits at 5 and not 0.
Some physical or field component You are on your feet at a fixed register handling physical goods, cash drawers, bags and jammed receipt printers, but the environment is a climate-controlled store aisle with predictable item flow, so it lands at 9 rather than the 15+ of a warehouse picker or delivery driver.
No licence, no signature requirement No state licence, no certification exam, no bond — the most a cashier carries is a store-issued alcohol/tobacco server permit in some states, and when a sale is voided or a drawer comes up short it's the retailer's loss and the manager's write-up, not your personal legal exposure.
Executes defined procedures on defined inputs Price overrides, return approvals, coupon exceptions and refusing an underage sale are all governed by posted register limits and a manager key above a set dollar amount, so the discretion you exercise is bounded by policy rather than owned by you.
The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.
Your task mix speaks to task resistance (5/20 here) — how much of the day's work current AI already does. That is the dimension the boxes above are about.
It cannot move the other three. Liability shield (2/20) is whether the law requires a licensed human to sign. Trust premium (4/20) is whether buyers specifically pay for a person. Judgment and accountability (3/20) is whether the role exists to own consequential calls. Those are facts about the occupation's standing, not about which tasks are in your week — a paralegal who does only trial exhibits still holds no licence. Together they are 9 of this occupation's 23 points (39%).
Embodiment (9/20) is also a property of the work rather than the worker, but we don't tag individual tasks as physical or not, so the picker can't tell you anything about it. That's a limit of this tool, not a claim.
Did we get the list right? Tell us what's missing — the tasks are written from the outside, and you're reading this from the inside.
Waiters and Waitresses EXPOSED
Cooks, Fast Food EXPOSED
The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 33/100, still COOKED.
Age-verification enforcement that requires an in-person licensed/trained human to visually confirm ID for alcohol, tobacco, vape and lottery sales — several states (e.g. Pennsylvania LCB rules, and TTB/state ABC audits) already bar unattended sale of these categories, and clerk-liability statutes make the individual personally citable. Expansion of these carve-outs to cover state cannabis retail, pseudoephedrine, and any new federal social-media/age-gating analogue in physical retail would harden a legally mandated human touchpoint at the front end.
Task-mix shift as the scan-and-tender tier disappears: what remains is self-checkout intervention (theft judgment, override, produce disputes), returns adjudication under vague policy, and de-escalation with angry customers. This is genuinely a second tier and it is what 'front-end associate' already means at Kroger and Walmart — but it also means fewer bodies, not more resistant ones.
If retail formats keep shifting weight toward fresh, prepared, and loose produce (weighing, code lookup, quality judgment) plus high-shrink locking cases requiring an associate to unlock and escort items, the residual physical share of the shift rises. Also: municipal self-checkout limits, like the failed California SB 1446 which would have capped self-checkout stations and barred them for alcohol, would force staffed lanes back into the floor plan.
Formal loss-prevention authority delegated to front-end associates — deciding whether to stop a suspected shoplifter, void a transaction, or waive a return — combined with employer policies that make the associate accountable for shrink at their station. Some chains already track per-associate override and shrink rates. Union contracts (UFCW) specifying that theft-stop decisions require a trained employee rather than an automated flag would formalize this.
The limit. Even with every lever, this stays in the low-to-mid 30s. The displacement here is kiosks and cameras, not frontier AI, and it has already run for a decade — the levers slow headcount decline in specific store formats rather than restore the occupation. There is no realistic route to a trust premium: shoppers who prefer a human cashier do not pay more for one, and no retailer prices that preference. The likeliest path is not a higher-scoring cashier but the cashier title dissolving into a broader associate role.
| New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ | 173,830 | $35,950 +9% |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 109,940 | $36,980 +12% |
| Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN | 99,240 | $35,010 +6% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 65,070 | $29,910 -9% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 56,340 | $30,250 -8% |
| Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX | 54,950 | $29,350 -11% |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 54,100 | $33,050 +1% |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 51,180 | $30,010 -9% |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 30,470 | $44,210 +34% |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 16,530 | $42,960 +31% |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 38,250 | $41,270 +26% |
Target · Walmart · McDonald's · Taco Bell · Walmart, Target, Costco · Costco · Dollar General · White Castle · Lidl · Sheetz · Spinneys · Cugat · Aldi · Shake Shack · Burger King · Merco · Marks & Spencer · Five Below · Wendy's
Retail Customer Experience reports a legislative proposal that would require retailers to give discounts to customers using self-checkout, a measure constraining self-checkout automation.
SILive.com reports a proposed New York state bill that would require retailers such as Walmart and Target to give shoppers a 10% discount when using self-checkout instead of staffed lanes.
New York Post reports a New York state legislative proposal that would require retailers to give shoppers a 10% discount for using self-checkout.
Business Model Analyst reports White Castle has deployed AI voice ordering across 40 drive-thru locations.
ABC News reports McDonald's is testing AI voice ordering technology at selected drive-thru locations.
Restaurant Business reports McDonald's is again pursuing voice AI for drive-thru order taking after an earlier attempt was discontinued.
Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.
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