← Risk register SOC 51-9031 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Cutters and Trimmers, Hand

6,060 US workers · median $38,020/yr · Production

COOKED

Trimming excess material from molded parts, hand-cutting fabric or foam to pattern, and deburring by knife or shears are physical tasks that language AI cannot touch — but they are exactly the repetitive, fixed-geometry work that CNC routers, die cutters, waterjet, laser, and vision-guided trimming cells already do faster and more consistently. The job is protected from AI and exposed to ordinary capital equipment, and employment (about 6,000 nationally) has been shrinking for years. There is no license, no client relationship, and almost no discretionary decision-making to fall back on.

10-year outlook: Expect continued double-digit decline as trimming and cutting cells get cheaper and vision-guided; the remaining jobs concentrate in low-volume custom shops and in setup/operator roles on the machines that replaced the hand work.

US employment, 2019–2025-37.3%
9,6706,060 workers

Part 2020 shock, part continued decline in the years since.

Median pay $30,200 → $38,020 +0.7% in real terms (nominal +25.9%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

-18.1%

Percentage only. The projection counts a different population from the 6,060 above — it includes self-employed workers, which for this occupation is most of them, so the two headcounts are not comparable.

Exposed, and shrinking

Both signals point the same way: the tasks are largely automatable and the BLS projects -18.1% by 2034. This is the case where the score and the forecast agree, and it is the one worth taking seriously.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~600 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

BuckerDinkerLapperRipperSeamerShaperClipperFlesherPearlerScarrerSkinnerSlitterTrimmerButtonerFinisherSpreaderStripperDiagrammerFur CutterHand CoperMat CutterMica SizerRug CutterCane Cutter

Score — 27/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (12/20). Weakest point: liability shield (0/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 10 + 12 + 0 + 2 + 3 = 27. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 10/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier A 10 reflects the split inside the job: nesting and cutting flat stock to a repeated pattern is already handled by die and laser cutting cells, while the residual work — trimming flash off an irregular casting, cutting around a hide's flaws, handling limp foam or leather that won't hold registration — still needs a hand on the shears, which is why it sits mid-band rather than at 4.

Embodiment 12/20

Some physical or field component You stand at a bench in a plant with knives, shears, and abrasive wheels, and the parts come to you — controlled indoor workspace, fixed station, no crawling into attics or working off a lift — which caps this at 12 instead of the 15+ a field trade would earn.

Liability shield 0/20

No licence, no signature requirement No state licence, no certification body, no personal sign-off on the piece; if a trimmed part fails inspection it goes back to the line as scrap under the plant's QC system, not against your name.

Trust premium 2/20

Anonymous artifact production The buyer of the finished gasket, garment, or molded part never learns who trimmed it, and you are interchangeable with the next operator on the following shift — the 2 is for the shop-floor familiarity a supervisor loses when a fast, low-scrap trimmer quits.

Judgment & accountability 3/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs Cut lines are set by the pattern, template, or scribe mark and tolerances are handed down on the work order; the only calls you own are when to reject an obviously bad piece and when to change a dull blade, which is why this is a 3 and not a 7.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 30/100 — COOKED, agreeing with the verdict above.

This occupation has already been through one. Headcount fell 50.4% between 2017 and 2025 — 12,230 to 6,060 — while the median wage held roughly flat in real terms (+ 3.4% after inflation). A job being commoditised usually loses pay along with headcount. One that shrinks by half while pay holds is leaving a specialist core behind, and the score above was assigned from the occupation title without sight of that history — so it may be describing the job this used to be rather than the people still doing it. Why this is a known limit.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Coursera — customer service and client-facing skill courses free to audit · Coursera — project coordination and cross-team delivery free to audit · Apprenticeship.gov — industrial maintenance and millwright programs paid to train · Apprenticeship.gov — paid, employer-sponsored trade apprenticeships, searchable by trade and ZIP paid to train · OSHA Outreach Training — the 10- and 30-hour cards most employers ask for low · MIT OpenCourseWare — finance and accounting free · MIT OpenCourseWare — full course materials across every department, free free · Coursera — engineering and procurement courses, auditable without paying free to audit · edX — supply chain and inventory management free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Food Preparation Workers EXPOSED · 41/100 · you already have ~85% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Service Orientation, Coordination

Dishwashers EXPOSED · 38/100 · you already have ~83% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Repairing, Operation and Control, Coordination

Cooks, Restaurant EXPOSED · 57/100 · you already have ~83% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Management of Financial Resources, Active Learning, Equipment Selection, Management of Material Resources

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 39/100 — EXPOSED.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +3

    Task-mix shift within the shrinking remainder: if CNC/waterjet/die-cutting absorbs all fixed-geometry trimming, the residual hand work is non-repeating, variable-geometry pieces — hand-trimming of large composite aerospace layups, one-off architectural foam, hide/leather cutting where natural material variation defeats nesting software. This tier already exists in leather goods (hide grading before cut) and composites finishing, and does not automate with the same capital.

  • plausible judgment accountability +4

    Where hand trimming sits inside an AS9100/Nadcap-controlled composite finishing operation, the trimmer becomes a designated inspector-operator whose call on whether a trim breached ply or exposed fiber is a recorded disposition. If a prime (Boeing/Spirit-type supplier flowdown) requires named operator sign-off on trim-and-inspect steps, discretion and accountability attach to the person.

  • plausible embodiment +3

    Concentration of remaining employment into unstructured settings — trimming inside cured composite assemblies, on-aircraft or on-boat-hull finishing, or field trim of installed foam/insulation — where the part cannot be brought to a fixture. Vision-guided trimming cells require the workpiece to come to the machine.

  • plausible trust premium +2

    Only in the narrow craft segment: hand-cut leather, bespoke tailoring, luthiery, where a maker's-mark or 'hand-cut' claim is the product. Requires the worker to be inside a branded craft business, not a production shop, and would apply to a few hundred people at most.

The limit. No licensing route exists or is being proposed, so liability_shield stays 0. Even with every lever, this occupation tops out in the high 30s: the displacement pressure is capital equipment already installed and amortizing, which no institutional change reverses, and the headcount base is 6,000 and falling.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 22 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC 590 $49,200 +29%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 530 $37,500 -1%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 440 $39,160 +3%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 380 $36,840 -3%
Greensboro-High Point, NC 200 $37,020 -3%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 130 $40,970 +8%
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX 130 $25,900 -32%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 110 $41,890 +10%

Best paid

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC 590 $49,200 +29%
Winston-Salem, NC 50 $45,520 +20%
St. Louis, MO-IL 40 $45,250 +19%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $38,020. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 27. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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