← Risk register SOC 51-4031 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

171,200 US workers · median $46,330/yr · Production

EXPOSED

10-year outlook: Headcount keeps drifting down as multi-station CNC cells and robotic loaders absorb long runs, while the remaining jobs consolidate into higher-paid setup, programming, and maintenance roles in job shops.

Score — 37/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 10 + 15 + 2 + 3 + 7 = 37.

Task resistance 10/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. Loading blanks, changing dies, adjusting ram stroke and shut height, and clearing jams still need a body at the press, but CNC turret punches with auto tool changers, servo feeds, and light-curtain part ejection already run the cutting cycle itself unattended — the setup and tending survive, the operating does not, which is what puts this at 10 rather than 14.

Embodiment 15/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You work at a machine that can amputate: hanging 200-lb dies with a hoist, shimming and bolting them into the bed, feeding coil stock, deburring, and checking first-off parts with calipers on a floor with oil, scrap, and noise — not a controlled cell, though it is at least a fixed station rather than a jobsite, which holds it at 15.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement. No state licence gates who runs a press brake; the employer's OSHA 1910.217 duties, point-of-operation guarding, and any die-setter qualification are internal certifications and shop policy, so nothing legally requires that the person at the controls be you.

Trust premium 3/20

Anonymous artifact production. The stamped bracket leaves in a tote with a part number and no operator name on it; the only relationship that matters is the QC inspector's sign-off on dimensions, so a customer would never notice a change in who ran the shift.

Judgment & accountability 7/20

Meaningful discretion. You decide when tooling is dull, when a burr means stop the run, and how to tweak feed or tonnage to hold tolerance on a bowing part — real calls made without asking, but bounded by the job's print, the spec sheet, and a setup sheet somebody else wrote, which is a 7 and not a 12.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Programming fundamentals partner link

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons SAFE · 67/100 · you already have ~90% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Selection, Instructing, Repairing, Service Orientation

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers EXPOSED · 62/100 · you already have ~84% of the skill profile

Machinists EXPOSED · 52/100 · you already have ~84% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Installation, Mathematics, Programming, Equipment Selection

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.